Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl: match statistics
Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Erzgebirge Aue played Verl in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Erzgebirge Aue: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match. Verl: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Erzgebirge Aue scores 1.16 and concedes 1.88 goals per match. Verl scores 2.22 and concedes 1.38. League average: 3.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Erzgebirge Aue 63%, Verl 72%. Over 2.5: Erzgebirge Aue 66%, Verl 78%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Verl has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.48. Erzgebirge Aue: 12.2 shots per match, Verl: 15.2.
Match halves
Erzgebirge Aue: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.63. Verl: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.25.
Goals by minute
Erzgebirge Aue: 31-45+ (10 goals). Verl: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (2) because Verl has a clear advantage in scoring efficiency and form. Verl has scored 71 goals this season versus 37 for Erzgebirge Aue, and away they average 1.88 goals per match compared to Aue’s 1.38 at home. In the last 5 matches Verl scored 10 and conceded only 4 (2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per match), while Aue in the same period scored 16 and conceded 12 (3.2 scored and 2.4 conceded), which translates to 1.8 points per match for Verl versus 0.6 for Aue. Additionally, Verl has a higher away xG (1.72) than Aue’s home xG (1.60), significantly greater possession (65% vs 51%) and more shots on target (5.44 vs 4.69), and a lower shutout rate (19% vs 38%). Aue’s home defense concedes 1.81 goals per match and has a negative home goal difference (-7), while Verl concedes 1.63 goals away and has a +4 goal difference, so I assess Verl’s chances as clearly higher.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show strong seasonal BTTS indicators: Erzgebirge Aue 69% and Verl 75%, versus the league average of 64%, which is a compelling signal for both teams to score. Aue averages 2.56 goals scored per match (last 5: 3.2) and concedes 1.13 seasonally (last 5: 2.4), while Verl scores 1.88 per match (last 5: 2.0) and concedes 1.63 seasonally (last 5: 0.8), so both sides consistently generate goal-scoring opportunities. xG metrics show similar offensive levels (Aue xG_for 1.93 vs Verl xG_for 1.72), and shot volume 16.44 vs 14.0 with shots on target 6.13 vs 5.44 further favor goals from both sides. Support for BTTS is also provided by high over 2.5 percentages (Aue 88%, Verl 69%) and over2.5+BTTS (63% and 69%) alongside low clean sheet rates (Aue 31%, Verl 13%), therefore I assess the "Yes" option as more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Erzgebirge Aue averages 2.56 goals scored per game while Verl averages 1.88; their seasonal xG are 1.93 (Aue) and 1.72 (Verl), with average xG against of 1.19 (Aue) and 1.28 (Verl), which translates to expected 1.61 goals for Aue and 1.46 for Verl (total 3.07). Season-long share of matches >1.5 goals is 94% for Aue and 88% for Verl, and >2.5 goals 88% and 69% respectively, strongly indicating a high-scoring game. Both teams score frequently: Aue in 69% of matches and Verl in 75%, with averages of 6.13 and 5.44 shots on target, increasing the likelihood of exchanged goals. In the last 5 matches Aue averages 3.2 scored and 2.4 conceded, and Verl 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, which further supports a scenario with at least three goals. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (the most conservative and best supported by seasonal data), while Over 2.5 also has significant statistical backing.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Seasonal indicators favor Erzgebirge Aue: the hosts led at the break in 56% of matches (9) and score on average 1.06 goals before halftime while conceding only 0.31, whereas Verl led at the break in 31% and have HT averages of 0.88 scored and 0.81 conceded. Over the full match Aue register 1.94 average points per home game versus 1.44 for Verl, also posting higher xG (1.93 vs 1.72) and more shots on target (6.13 vs 5.44), corroborating a seasonal home advantage. After the break Aue score on average 1.5 goals (second half) versus 1.0 for Verl and win the second half in 63% of matches (vs 31% for the visitors), so a lead at the break is likely to be maintained or extended. Form must be considered: Aue’s last 5 matches read llwll (20% wins) and in those 5 they conceded an average of 2.0 goals before halftime, while Verl led at the break in 60% of their last 5 fixtures, increasing the probability of an HT upset. Taken together, the seasonal HT parameters and the hosts’ strong second-half performance make the most probable scenario a lead for Aue at halftime and a home win after the match (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Erzgebirge Aue | Verl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Verl is 91% better for: goals scored per match.
1.16 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 2.22 goals / match - Verl
Verl is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.88 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.38 goals / match - Verl
Erzgebirge Aue scores in 72% of matches (23 of 32 matches), while Verl keeps a clean sheet in 22% (7 of 32 matches).
Verl scores in 88% of matches (28 of 32 matches), while Erzgebirge Aue keeps a clean sheet in 22% (7 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Erzgebirge Aue
Over / Under - Verl
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Verl is 61% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.03 pts / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.66 pts / match - Verl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Erzgebirge Aue - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 16%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Verl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -7 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Erzgebirge Aue
Verl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Erzgebirge Aue | Liga | Verl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.03 | 3.13 | ▲ 3.59 |
| Both teams scored | • 63% | 64% | ▲ 72% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 66% | 63% | ▲ 78% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 21% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 77% | • 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 83% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Erzgebirge Aue 0 - 1 - 0 Verl. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?
The 3. Liga match finished Erzgebirge Aue 1:1 Verl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?
Erzgebirge Aue score 1.16 goals per game on average and Verl 2.22. The 3. Liga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Erzgebirge Aue's matches and 72% of Verl's.
What form are Erzgebirge Aue and Verl in?
Over the last 5 games Erzgebirge Aue have a 0-0-5 record (0.00 points per game) and Verl 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.