ES Tunis vs Zarzis: match statistics

ES Tunis holds a clear advantage: this season they have won 16 of 24 matches (16-6-2), win 92% of home games and kept a clean sheet in 83% of matches, conceding on average only 0.17 goals per game. At home the hosts score 1.92 goals on average and have an xG of 2.38 with 18.42 shots and 8.67 on target, while Zarzis away averages 1.08 goals, xG 1.26 and only 4 shots on target per game. Zarzis have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches and have not won any of them (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss), and in 50% of away games they fail to score, which limits their offensive threat. The possession gap (68% vs 51%) and superiority in chance creation (xG 2.38 vs 1.26) indicate ES Tunis will control the match and generate more opportunities; given the hosts’ 0% FTS at home and only 0.17 goals conceded on average, I forecast a home victory.

Seasonal statistics point to the “no” outcome: ES Tunis has BTTS at home of 25% and has kept a clean sheet in 42% of home matches, while the league BTTS rate is only 26%. Zarzis has a seasonal BTTS of 33% and BTTS in the last 5 matches of 40%, but in those five games they scored only 2 goals (avg. 0.4 per match) and conceded 3 goals (avg. 0.6), limiting the visitors’ offensive threat. xG shows similar offensive potential (1.27 vs 1.26 for the season), yet ES Tunis has lower expected goals conceded 0.91 versus Zarzis 1.17, suggesting better defensive organization for the home side. Additionally, the hosts have 40 goals scored and only 7 conceded this season vs Zarzis 20 scored and 24 conceded, therefore I assign 72% to 'no' and 28% to 'yes' as the most consistent forecast with the data.

I expect 1.22 goals for ES Tunis and 1.09 for Zarzis (total 2.31), calculated as the average of team xG and opponent xG: for the hosts xG 1.27 vs xG against the visitors 1.17 → 1.22; for the visitors xG 1.26 vs xG against the hosts 0.91 → 1.09. Total xG 2.53 (1.27+1.26) and the projected sum 2.31 indicate a high probability of >1.5 goals. Seasonal over 1.5 rates are 50% for the hosts and 58% for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches there were 10 goals in total (avg. 2.0). I rate Over 2.5 as moderately likely (54% over) because the visitors have a seasonal over 2.5 rate of 58% vs the hosts’ 17%, and the projected sum 2.31 is slightly below 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely (18% over), supported by seasonal over 3.5 = 8% for both teams and low shots on target 3.44 (hosts) and 4.0 (visitors) with conversion rates of 5.0% vs 13.0%. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, given the projected 2.31 total and historical over 1.5 rates of 50–58%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X) — ES Tunis were level at the break in 45% of matches, Zarzis in 50%, and in the last 5 away fixtures the half-time score was a draw in 100% of cases. The balance is confirmed by nearly identical xG figures: 1.27 for the hosts versus 1.26 for the visitors, and a low proportion of both-teams-to-score games — 25% for ES Tunis and 33% for Zarzis. ES Tunis show better recent form (on average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in the last 5, 40% wins), while Zarzis have not won in their last 5 (0% wins) and often end halves level, which reduces the likelihood of a decisive victory. Therefore I assign X/X the highest probability (30%), with the next strongest signals being X/1 at 20% and X/2 at 12%.