Denmark - 1st DivisionBlue Water ArenaData current as of 20 October 2026

Esbjerg vs Fredericia: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Esbjerg vs Fredericia: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Esbjerg play Fredericia in 1st Division (Denmark). The match date is 24 October 2026. Venue: Blue Water Arena.

Current form

Esbjerg: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Fredericia: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.

Goal statistics

Esbjerg scores 1.18 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Fredericia scores 1.55 and concedes 0.55. League average: 2.73 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Esbjerg 64%, Fredericia 36%. Over 2.5: Esbjerg 64%, Fredericia 45%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.

xG, shots and style

Fredericia has higher xG: 2.55 vs 1.36. Esbjerg: 11.7 shots per match, Fredericia: 23.2.

Match halves

Esbjerg: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.55. Fredericia: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.91.

Goals by minute

Esbjerg: 46-60 (4 goals). Fredericia: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

1st Division: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(4.11)
(4.00)
(1.69)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.18Goals scored / match1.55
EsbjergFredericia
2Goals conceded / match0.55
EsbjergFredericia
47%Average possession57%
EsbjergFredericia
4.36Shots on target / match8.55
EsbjergFredericia

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

11.73Shots per match23.18
EsbjergFredericia
4.36Shots on target8.55
EsbjergFredericia
10.1%Shot conversion6.7%
EsbjergFredericia
47%Possession57%
EsbjergFredericia
1.36xG for2.55
EsbjergFredericia
1.88xG against1.13
EsbjergFredericia

Shooting quality

Esbjerg: BalancedFredericia: Dominant
EsbjergFredericia
Accuracy (shots on target)37%37%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.120.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.270.18

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Fredericia is 267% better for: last-5 form.

0.6 pts / match - Esbjerg · 2.2 pts / match - Fredericia

Esbjerg
LDLDD
No win in the last 5 matches
Season result split
9% W36% D55% L
Season (W-D-L)
1-4-6
0.64 pts / match · goal difference -9
Last 5 (W-D-L)
0-3-2
0.60 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
0-3-2
Last 5 at home
0-3-2
DLLDD
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.0Goals conceded: 1.8xG: 1.13Opponent xG: 1.85BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%
Fredericia
WDDWW
Unbeaten in the last 5 matches
Season result split
45% W45% D9% L
Season (W-D-L)
5-5-1
1.82 pts / match · goal difference +11
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-2-0
2.20 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Last 5 away
2-2-1
DWLDW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 0.4xG: 2.31Opponent xG: 1.09BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Fredericia is 31% better for: goals scored per match.

1.18 goals / match - Esbjerg · 1.55 goals / match - Fredericia

Fredericia is 264% better for: goals conceded per match.

2 goals / match - Esbjerg · 0.55 goals / match - Fredericia

Esbjerg scoring profile: mixed

Esbjerg scores in 64% of matches (7 of 11 matches), while Fredericia keeps a clean sheet in 64% (7 of 11 matches).

Fredericia scoring profile: very strong

Fredericia scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Esbjerg keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).

13Goals scored (season)17
EsbjergFredericia
22Goals conceded (season)6
EsbjergFredericia
3.18Average goals in match2.09
EsbjergFredericia
5Goals scored (last 5)8
EsbjergFredericia
9Goals conceded (last 5)2
EsbjergFredericia

How often they score at least...

64%1 goal82%
EsbjergFredericia
36%2 goals45%
EsbjergFredericia
18%3 goals27%
EsbjergFredericia
0%4 goals0%
EsbjergFredericia

How often they concede at least...

91%1 goal36%
EsbjergFredericia
73%2 goals18%
EsbjergFredericia
27%3 goals0%
EsbjergFredericia
9%4 goals0%
EsbjergFredericia

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

59%
League average

Goal patterns

27%BTTS at half-time9%
EsbjergFredericia
18%BTTS in both halves9%
EsbjergFredericia
36%Scored in both halves9%
EsbjergFredericia

BTTS and goal count

55%Min. 3 goals and BTTS18%
EsbjergFredericia
9%Min. 3 goals without BTTS27%
EsbjergFredericia
40%BTTS - last 520%
EsbjergFredericia

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

64%Min. 1 goal before half-time55%
EsbjergFredericia
36%Min. 2 goals before half-time27%
EsbjergFredericia
9%Min. 3 goals before half-time9%
EsbjergFredericia

2nd half

82%Min. 1 goal after half-time64%
EsbjergFredericia
64%Min. 2 goals after half-time36%
EsbjergFredericia
45%Min. 3 goals after half-time18%
EsbjergFredericia

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Fredericia is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.18 pts / match - Esbjerg · 1.36 pts / match - Fredericia

Esbjerg - half-time state
18% leading64% draw18% trailing
Fredericia - half-time state
27% leading55% draw18% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.18Points per match (1st half)1.36
EsbjergFredericia
0.64Goals scored (1st half)0.64
EsbjergFredericia
0.55Goals conceded (1st half)0.27
EsbjergFredericia
1.18Average goals (1st half)0.91
EsbjergFredericia
55%Clean sheet before half-time73%
EsbjergFredericia
55%No goal before half-time64%
EsbjergFredericia

After half-time (2nd half)

0.27Points per match (2nd half)1.82
EsbjergFredericia
0.55Goals scored (2nd half)0.91
EsbjergFredericia
1.45Goals conceded (2nd half)0.27
EsbjergFredericia
2Average goals (2nd half)1.18
EsbjergFredericia
18%Clean sheet after half-time82%
EsbjergFredericia
45%No goal after half-time45%
EsbjergFredericia

Esbjerg - second-half results

0% W27% D73% L
13
Half-time points
7
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference (1st half)
3
Second-half points
-10
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.18
PPG before half-time
Lead holding50%

Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 9%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.

Defence after half-time+0.9

Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

Fredericia - second-half results

45% W45% D9% L
15
Half-time points
7
Half-time goals
+4
Goal difference (1st half)
20
Second-half points
+7
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.36
PPG before half-time
Lead holding167%

Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time0.0

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Esbjerg - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.200.40
Goals scored / match0.60.4
Goals conceded / match0.61.2
Average goals in match1.21.6
1 goal60%80%
2 goals20%60%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet60%20%
No goal60%60%
Goal difference0-4
Half-time: 20% leading - 60% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 0% won - 40% draw - 60% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 3
Fredericia - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.801.40
Goals scored / match1.20.4
Goals conceded / match0.20.2
Average goals in match1.40.6
1 goal60%40%
2 goals60%20%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet80%80%
No goal40%60%
Goal difference+5+1
Half-time: 40% leading - 60% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 80% draw - 0% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 6

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Esbjerg
ScoredConceded
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
0
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
7
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.

Fredericia
ScoredConceded
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
0
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
0
61-75
1
2
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.64
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
0.9 : 1.8
Estimated goal split
home : away
97%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
50%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-62%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
52%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
6%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 17 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Esbjerg

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.52
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.30
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-1.5 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.18
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.12
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
85%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
150%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.04
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.1
Late goals
8% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 15% come in the first quarter-hour.
8%

Fredericia

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+1.42
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.42
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-9.3 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-1.00
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.58
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
117%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
40%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.38
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
6% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 18% come in the first quarter-hour.
6%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1st Division).

Teams vs league

EsbjergLigaFredericia
Average goals in match▲ 3.182.73▼ 2.09
Both teams scored▲ 64%59%▼ 36%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 64%53%▼ 45%
Clean sheets▼ 9%26%▲ 64%
Goal before half-time▼ 64%76%▼ 55%
Goal after half-time▲ 82%73%▼ 64%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.73
Average goals per match
59%
Both teams scored
53%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
26%
Clean sheets
1.39
Home goals / match
1.33
Away goals / match
+5%
Home attack advantage
+4%
Home defence advantage
+3%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
76%
1 goal
32%
2 goals
14%
3 goals
3%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
73%
1 goal
42%
2 goals
23%
3 goals
6%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Previous meeting: Esbjerg 0 - 0 - 1 Fredericia. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.

FAQ

When do Esbjerg and Fredericia play?

Esbjerg face Fredericia on 24 October 2026 in 1st Division at Blue Water Arena. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What do the goal statistics show before Esbjerg vs Fredericia?

Esbjerg score 1.18 goals per game on average and Fredericia 1.55. The 1st Division average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Esbjerg's matches and 36% of Fredericia's.

What form are Esbjerg and Fredericia in?

Over the last 5 games Esbjerg have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Fredericia 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Esbjerg vs Fredericia?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.