Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced competition favoring a draw scenario. Esteghlal Khuzestan presents stable home form with 40% draws and only 30% losses at their own stadium, earning 1.2 points per match in their last five games. Fajr Sepasi demonstrates better offensive efficiency (18% shot conversion versus 9% for the hosts); however, their away form is unstable with 50% draws and only 20% away victories. A key factor is the xG comparison (0.76 vs 0.92 for the hosts), suggesting a slight qualitative advantage for Esteghlal, but the low scoring efficiency of both teams (0.8 vs 1.1 goals per match) supports a low-scoring outcome. Given both teams' tendency to draw and balanced ball possession (49% for both), a sharing of points is the most probable scenario.
Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Esteghlal Khuzestan played Fajr Sepasi in Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran). The match was played on 13 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Esteghlal Khuzestan: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Fajr Sepasi: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores 0.70 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Fajr Sepasi scores 1.15 and concedes 1.20. League average: 1.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Esteghlal Khuzestan 35%, Fajr Sepasi 60%. Over 2.5: Esteghlal Khuzestan 20%, Fajr Sepasi 50%. League level: BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Esteghlal Khuzestan has higher xG: 0.86 vs 0.76. Esteghlal Khuzestan: 2.9 shots per match, Fajr Sepasi: 0.7.
Match halves
Esteghlal Khuzestan: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.35. Fajr Sepasi: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Esteghlal Khuzestan: 31-45+ (4 goals). Fajr Sepasi: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Persian Gulf Pro League: 1.75 goals per match, BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced competition favoring a draw scenario. Esteghlal Khuzestan presents stable home form with 40% draws and only 30% losses at their own stadium, earning 1.2 points per match in their last five games. Fajr Sepasi demonstrates better offensive efficiency (18% shot conversion versus 9% for the hosts); however, their away form is unstable with 50% draws and only 20% away victories. A key factor is the xG comparison (0.76 vs 0.92 for the hosts), suggesting a slight qualitative advantage for Esteghlal, but the low scoring efficiency of both teams (0.8 vs 1.1 goals per match) supports a low-scoring outcome. Given both teams' tendency to draw and balanced ball possession (49% for both), a sharing of points is the most probable scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Esteghlal Khuzestan | Fajr Sepasi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | -46% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.30 | 1.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.82 | 0.00 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fajr Sepasi is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1.8 pts / match - Fajr Sepasi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fajr Sepasi is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
0.7 goals / match - Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1.15 goals / match - Fajr Sepasi
Esteghlal Khuzestan is 20% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1.2 goals / match - Fajr Sepasi
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores in 55% of matches (11 of 20 matches), while Fajr Sepasi keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
Fajr Sepasi scores in 80% of matches (16 of 20 matches), while Esteghlal Khuzestan keeps a clean sheet in 35% (7 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Esteghlal Khuzestan
Over / Under - Fajr Sepasi
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Esteghlal Khuzestan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 25%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fajr Sepasi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Fajr Sepasi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Persian Gulf Pro League).
Teams vs league
| Esteghlal Khuzestan | Liga | Fajr Sepasi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.70 | 1.75 | ▲ 2.35 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 37% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 20% | 27% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 35% | 42% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 53% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 60% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1 - 0 - 0 Fajr Sepasi. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi?
The Persian Gulf Pro League match finished Esteghlal Khuzestan 1:0 Fajr Sepasi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi?
Esteghlal Khuzestan score 0.70 goals per game on average and Fajr Sepasi 1.15. The Persian Gulf Pro League average is 1.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Esteghlal Khuzestan's matches and 60% of Fajr Sepasi's.
What form are Esteghlal Khuzestan and Fajr Sepasi in?
Over the last 5 games Esteghlal Khuzestan have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Fajr Sepasi 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Fajr Sepasi?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.