Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi: match statistics
Esteghlal presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and only 10% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this encounter. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per home match with just one goal conceded, and their goal difference (+5) is decidedly positive. Fajr Sepasi has poor away results with only 18% wins and a significant 36% loss rate, additionally failing to score in 36% of away matches. xG statistics point to an advantage for the visitors in defense (xG Against 1.52 vs 0.87 for the hosts), but Fajr Sepasi's low xG For (0.76) in away matches suggests problems creating scoring chances. Given Esteghlal's home advantage and the visitors' weak away efficiency, a home win is the most likely result, though Fajr Sepasi's solid draw form (45% away draws) does not rule out a split of points.
Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Esteghlal played Fajr Sepasi in Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran). The match was played on 27 February 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Esteghlal: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Fajr Sepasi: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Esteghlal scores 1.19 and concedes 0.76 goals per match. Fajr Sepasi scores 1.09 and concedes 1.14. League average: 1.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Esteghlal 43%, Fajr Sepasi 55%. Over 2.5: Esteghlal 29%, Fajr Sepasi 45%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Esteghlal has higher xG: 1.30 vs 0.76. Esteghlal: 2.7 shots per match, Fajr Sepasi: 0.5.
Match halves
Esteghlal: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.57. Fajr Sepasi: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Esteghlal: 31-45+ (7 goals). Fajr Sepasi: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Persian Gulf Pro League: 1.79 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Esteghlal presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and only 10% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this encounter. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per home match with just one goal conceded, and their goal difference (+5) is decidedly positive. Fajr Sepasi has poor away results with only 18% wins and a significant 36% loss rate, additionally failing to score in 36% of away matches. xG statistics point to an advantage for the visitors in defense (xG Against 1.52 vs 0.87 for the hosts), but Fajr Sepasi's low xG For (0.76) in away matches suggests problems creating scoring chances. Given Esteghlal's home advantage and the visitors' weak away efficiency, a home win is the most likely result, though Fajr Sepasi's solid draw form (45% away draws) does not rule out a split of points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Esteghlal | Fajr Sepasi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 18% | -72% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.48 | 1.52 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 2.48 | 0.00 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Esteghlal is 11% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Esteghlal · 1.8 pts / match - Fajr Sepasi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Esteghlal is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.19 goals / match - Esteghlal · 1.09 goals / match - Fajr Sepasi
Esteghlal is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.76 goals / match - Esteghlal · 1.14 goals / match - Fajr Sepasi
Esteghlal scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while Fajr Sepasi keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 matches).
Fajr Sepasi scores in 77% of matches (17 of 22 matches), while Esteghlal keeps a clean sheet in 43% (9 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Esteghlal
Over / Under - Fajr Sepasi
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Esteghlal is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.52 pts / match - Esteghlal · 1.18 pts / match - Fajr Sepasi
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Esteghlal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fajr Sepasi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Esteghlal
Fajr Sepasi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Persian Gulf Pro League).
Teams vs league
| Esteghlal | Liga | Fajr Sepasi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 1.95 | 1.79 | ▲ 2.23 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 43% | 38% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 29% | 27% | ▲ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 41% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 62% | 54% | ▼ 45% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 57% | 62% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Esteghlal 1 - 0 - 0 Fajr Sepasi. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi?
The Persian Gulf Pro League match finished Esteghlal 2:1 Fajr Sepasi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi?
Esteghlal score 1.19 goals per game on average and Fajr Sepasi 1.09. The Persian Gulf Pro League average is 1.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Esteghlal's matches and 55% of Fajr Sepasi's.
What form are Esteghlal and Fajr Sepasi in?
Over the last 5 games Esteghlal have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Fajr Sepasi 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi?
The statistical background for Esteghlal vs Fajr Sepasi — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.