Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP: match statistics
Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Estrela Amadora played Sporting CP in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Estrela Amadora: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Sporting CP: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Estrela Amadora scores 1.18 and concedes 1.68 goals per match. Sporting CP scores 2.67 and concedes 0.63. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Estrela Amadora 46%, Sporting CP 52%. Over 2.5: Estrela Amadora 54%, Sporting CP 70%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Sporting CP has higher xG: 2.04 vs 1.19. Estrela Amadora: 11.2 shots per match, Sporting CP: 18.0.
Match halves
Estrela Amadora: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.61. Sporting CP: half-time lead 59%, second-half goals 1.52.
Goals by minute
Estrela Amadora: 61-75 (9 goals). Sporting CP: 76-90+ (19 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sporting CP is the clear favorite for this match: they sit 2nd in the table versus Estrela in 14th and have 21 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss this season, while Estrela have 6 wins, 10 draws and 12 losses. The visitors have a far superior attacking output — 72 goals this season versus 33 for Estrela, and 13 goals in the last 5 matches versus 7 for the hosts; on average Sporting score 2.29 goals away, and Estrela 1.43 at home. Chance quality also favors Sporting: on average 6.36 shots on target and 16.21 shots per match with a 14% conversion versus 4.21 shots on target, 14.07 shots and 10% conversion for Estrela; additionally Estrela fail to score in 36% of home games, while Sporting have 0% of away matches without a goal. Defensively the visitors’ advantage is clear — Sporting concede 0.79 goals per away game on average (17 conceded this season) versus 1.5 conceded by Estrela at home (47 conceded), and xG favors the visitors 1.84 to 1.43 for the hosts. Considering form (Sporting have 3 wins in the last 5 and 1.8 pts per game, Estrela only 1 win and 1.0 pt), the superiority in chance creation and better defence, I assess approximately a 70% probability of a visitors’ win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Estrela Amadora at home has a season-long percentage of matches with BTTS at 31% and keeps a clean sheet in 69% of fixtures, which is a strong argument against the BTTS market. Sporting away has BTTS 71% and averages 2.29 goals per match (xG 1.84), so they have a real potential to score even against a good defense. However, Estrela’s home defence shows a low average goals conceded of 0.46 per game and xG against of 0.81, and a league clean sheet rate of 60%, which reduces the likelihood that both teams will find the net. Last 5 matches data introduce some balance — both teams have BTTS at 40% in the last 5, Sporting averaged 2.6 goals and Estrela 1.4 in that period, which raises BTTS risk but does not neutralize the home side’s advantage. In summary, based on Estrela’s 69% clean sheets and their seasonal BTTS of 31% vs Sporting’s 71% away BTTS, I assign a higher probability to the 'No BTTS' scenario: btts_pred_no 65% and btts_pred_yes 35%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I back Over 1.5 as the strongest play because both teams very rarely finish matches below that threshold: Estrela have 92% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Sporting 93%. Season xG are 2.25 for Estrela and 1.84 for Sporting, giving a combined xG = 4.09 and confirming high goal expectancy (home xG 2.25, away xG 1.84). Estrela average 20.0 shots with 7.77 on target and a 15% conversion rate; Sporting record 16.21 shots with 6.36 on target and a 14% conversion, which together increase the realistic chance of converting chances. The 2.5 line is also attractive — Estrela have 77% of matches >2.5, Sporting 64%, and in the last 5 matches 60% and 80% respectively — therefore I assign Over 2.5 a 72% probability, but it’s a weaker signal than the near-certain Over 1.5. For 3.5 most indicators point to Under (seasonOver35 38% and 29%), so I rate Over 3.5 at 33% and Under 3.5 at 67%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The hosts hold a clear advantage in the first half: Estrela led at the break in 8 matches (62%), scoring an average of 1.38 goals and conceding only 0.08 by half-time. Additionally, the hosts register a higher xG of 2.25 versus the visitors’ 1.84 and more shots (on average 20.0 and 7.77 on target vs 16.21 and 6.36), which translates into greater chance creation. Estrela has 69% clean sheets across the season and as many as 92% clean sheets at half-time, so maintaining a lead is realistic. Sporting have better form in their last 5 matches (60% wins versus the hosts’ 20%) and the visitors feature in 71% of games with both teams scoring, so turnaround scenarios after the break are possible. On this basis the safest pick is 1/1 (I estimate a 43% chance), with a significant probability of X/1 (22%) and X/X (14%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Estrela Amadora | Sporting CP | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sporting CP is 160% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Estrela Amadora · 2.6 pts / match - Sporting CP
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sporting CP is 126% better for: goals scored per match.
1.18 goals / match - Estrela Amadora · 2.67 goals / match - Sporting CP
Sporting CP is 167% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.68 goals / match - Estrela Amadora · 0.63 goals / match - Sporting CP
Estrela Amadora scores in 57% of matches (16 of 28 matches), while Sporting CP keeps a clean sheet in 48% (13 of 27 matches).
Sporting CP scores in 100% of matches (27 of 27 matches), while Estrela Amadora keeps a clean sheet in 25% (7 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Estrela Amadora
Over / Under - Sporting CP
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sporting CP is 124% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.96 pts / match - Estrela Amadora · 2.15 pts / match - Sporting CP
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Estrela Amadora - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Sporting CP - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 59% of matches and wins 78%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +12 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Estrela Amadora | Liga | Sporting CP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.86 | 2.72 | ▲ 3.30 |
| Both teams scored | • 46% | 47% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 55% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 30% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 71% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▲ 93% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Estrela Amadora 0 - 0 - 1 Sporting CP. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?
The Liga NOS match finished Estrela Amadora 0:1 Sporting CP. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?
Estrela Amadora score 1.18 goals per game on average and Sporting CP 2.67. The Liga NOS average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Estrela Amadora's matches and 52% of Sporting CP's.
What form are Estrela Amadora and Sporting CP in?
Over the last 5 games Estrela Amadora have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Sporting CP 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.