Estudiantes Caseros vs All Boys: match statistics

A win for Estudiantes Caseros appears the most likely outcome. The home side have a clear defensive edge: they concede just 0.71 goals per home match and register 43% clean sheets, whereas All Boys concede 1.86 goals away and manage only 14% clean sheets. Offensively both teams are weak — Estudiantes score 0.57 goals per home game with xG 0.98, 7.71 shots and 2.29 shots on target, while All Boys average 0.43 goals away with xG 1.34, 10.43 shots and 2.86 shots on target; however the visitors’ conversion is only around 4% and 71% of their away matches end goalless for them. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 3 goals and average 1.2 points per game (1W, 3D, 1L), whereas All Boys have scored 4, conceded 8 and average 1.0 point per game (1W, 2D, 2L). Therefore I favour Estudiantes and expect a low, defensively oriented game likely to go in the hosts’ favour.

Estudiantes Caseros has a 67% clean sheet rate and concedes an average of 0.33 goals per match this season, while All Boys score only 0.43 goals per match, which significantly reduces the likelihood of BTTS - Yes. Seasonal BTTS rates are 33% for the home side and 29% for the visitors, both below the league average of 38%, indicating a lower-than-average frequency of Goal/Goal outcomes. Estudiantes posts 1.43 xG per match, and All Boys concede 1.6 xG per match, so the home team has potential to create chances, but low conversion rates of 6% for the hosts and 4% for the visitors and actual goals per game of 0.67 and 0.43 show xG rarely translates into goals here. In the last 5 matches both teams show a 40% BTTS rate, yet All Boys have conceded 1.6 goals on average versus 0.8 for Estudiantes, confirming the home side more often secures a clean sheet. Overall, this is a strong signal for No Goal — hosts frequently keep a cs (67% and 0.33 conceded), and visitors have a very low goals average (0.43) and conversion, so the most likely scenario is no BTTS.

Estudiantes Caseros averages 0.67 goals per match (10 goals this season) and keeps a clean sheet in 67% of games, while All Boys averages 0.43 goals per match (9 goals) and concedes 1.86 goals on average. Looking at xG, the home side has xG_for 1.43, the visitors xG_for 1.34, and All Boys’ defense allows xG_against 1.6 versus 0.98 for Estudiantes, yielding an xG‑based score of 1.52 for the hosts and 1.16 for the guests (total 2.68 xG). However, both teams clearly underperform in finishing: Estudiantes converts xG at 0.67/1.43 = 0.47, All Boys at 0.43/1.34 = 0.32, so after adjustment expected goals are ~0.71 (home) and ~0.37 (away), total ~1.08. This aligns with the last 5 matches: the hosts scored 3 goals in 5 matches (0.6 per match), the visitors 4 goals (0.8 per match), and the league average is 1.82 goals per match, indicating a lower scoring tempo in this fixture. I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 at 30% (Under 70%), Over 2.5 at 10% (Under 90%) and Over 3.5 at 3% (Under 97%). The strongest betting signal is Under 2.5 given the expected combined ~1.08 goals, the hosts’ high clean sheet rate (67%) and both teams’ low finishing rates.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: the home side were level at the break in 100% of matches, the visitors in 71%, with low average first-half goals (home 0.22 vs away 0.14) and a high share of first-half clean sheets (78% home vs 57% away). After the interval the stats clearly favour the home team — in second halves the hosts average 1.67 points compared to 0.57 for the visitors, while visitors concede on average 1.14 goals after the break versus only 0.11 conceded by the hosts. Seasonal figures further confirm Estudiantes Caseros’ advantage: 1.67 points per match and 33% home wins versus 0.14 points and 0% wins for All Boys, plus better defence (0.33 goals conceded per game vs 1.86 for the visitors). xG also supports the home side (xG 1.43 vs 1.34 and xG against 0.98 vs 1.60), so the most likely scenario is a half-time draw and a home victory after the break (X/1).