Estudiantes Mérida vs Carabobo: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a tight contest leaning towards a draw. Estudiantes Merida presents poor home form (0% home wins, 67% losses), putting them in a difficult situation. Carabobo, on the other hand, remains undefeated on the road (100% draws in away matches), demonstrating a solid defense (0.67 goals conceded on average). The hosts have a better xG ratio in home matches (1.4 vs 1.08), but their poor finishing (8% conversion rate) and weak form (dll) are concerning. The visitors dominate ball possession (55%) and register more shots on target (6.67 vs 2.67), but their low efficiency (3% conversion rate) and difficulties in scoring away goals (0.67 goals on average) suggest they might struggle to break through the hosts' defense. Given Carabobo's tendency to draw and both teams' weakness in the final third, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
Estudiantes Mérida vs Carabobo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Estudiantes Mérida played Carabobo in Primera División (Venezuela). The match was played on 17 March 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Estudiantes Mérida: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Carabobo: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Estudiantes Mérida scores 1.57 and concedes 1.43 goals per match. Carabobo scores 1.14 and concedes 0.29. League average: 2.43 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Estudiantes Mérida 71%, Carabobo 29%. Over 2.5: Estudiantes Mérida 71%, Carabobo 14%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Carabobo has higher xG: 2.04 vs 1.16. Estudiantes Mérida: 10.4 shots per match, Carabobo: 19.0.
Match halves
Estudiantes Mérida: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.43. Carabobo: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Estudiantes Mérida: 31-45+ (4 goals). Carabobo: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.43 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a tight contest leaning towards a draw. Estudiantes Merida presents poor home form (0% home wins, 67% losses), putting them in a difficult situation. Carabobo, on the other hand, remains undefeated on the road (100% draws in away matches), demonstrating a solid defense (0.67 goals conceded on average). The hosts have a better xG ratio in home matches (1.4 vs 1.08), but their poor finishing (8% conversion rate) and weak form (dll) are concerning. The visitors dominate ball possession (55%) and register more shots on target (6.67 vs 2.67), but their low efficiency (3% conversion rate) and difficulties in scoring away goals (0.67 goals on average) suggest they might struggle to break through the hosts' defense. Given Carabobo's tendency to draw and both teams' weakness in the final third, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Estudiantes Mérida | Carabobo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.48 | 0.19 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carabobo is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Estudiantes Mérida · 1.8 pts / match - Carabobo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Estudiantes Mérida is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.57 goals / match - Estudiantes Mérida · 1.14 goals / match - Carabobo
Carabobo is 393% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.43 goals / match - Estudiantes Mérida · 0.29 goals / match - Carabobo
Estudiantes Mérida scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Carabobo keeps a clean sheet in 71% (5 of 7 matches).
Carabobo scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Estudiantes Mérida keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Estudiantes Mérida
Over / Under - Carabobo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Estudiantes Mérida - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Carabobo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Estudiantes Mérida
Carabobo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Estudiantes Mérida | Liga | Carabobo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.43 | ▼ 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 49% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 45% | ▼ 14% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 32% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 68% | ▼ 43% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 72% | ▼ 43% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Estudiantes Mérida 0 - 0 - 2 Carabobo. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Estudiantes Mérida vs Carabobo?
The Primera División match finished Estudiantes Mérida 3:2 Carabobo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Estudiantes Mérida and Carabobo?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Estudiantes Mérida won 0, Carabobo won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Estudiantes Mérida vs Carabobo?
Estudiantes Mérida score 1.57 goals per game on average and Carabobo 1.14. The Primera División average is 2.43 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Estudiantes Mérida's matches and 29% of Carabobo's.
What form are Estudiantes Mérida and Carabobo in?
Over the last 5 games Estudiantes Mérida have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Carabobo 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Estudiantes Mérida vs Carabobo?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Estudiantes Mérida vs Carabobo: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.