Estudiantes Mérida vs Monagas: match statistics
Estudiantes Mérida vs Monagas: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Estudiantes Mérida played Monagas in Primera División (Venezuela). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Estudiantes Mérida: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Monagas: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Estudiantes Mérida scores 1.64 and concedes 1.27 goals per match. Monagas scores 1.00 and concedes 1.64. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Estudiantes Mérida 64%, Monagas 36%. Over 2.5: Estudiantes Mérida 64%, Monagas 55%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Monagas has higher xG: 1.21 vs 1.16. Estudiantes Mérida: 10.1 shots per match, Monagas: 12.7.
Match halves
Estudiantes Mérida: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.73. Monagas: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.82.
Goals by minute
Estudiantes Mérida: 31-45+ (5 goals). Monagas: 46-60 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Estudiantes Mérida has a clear home advantage: they average 1.6 goals per match, register 3.6 shots on target and have xG 1.4, whereas Monagas on the road average only 0.2 goals, 2.4 shots on target and xG 1.0. The difference in shooting efficiency is significant — the hosts convert about 13% of their attempts and have 18 goals this season, while the visitors convert just 2% and have 11 goals; additionally Monagas fail to score in 80% of their away games. Defensively Monagas concede on average 2.0 goals away versus 1.6 conceded by Estudiantes at home, with xG against 1.28 vs 1.20, which indicates a greater threat from the visitors’ perspective. Form supports the home side’s advantage — Estudiantes in the last 5 matches have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (8 goals scored, 2.0 pts/match), while Monagas in the last 5 have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (6 goals, 1.4 pts/match) and simultaneously a run of 5 consecutive away defeats. Therefore I estimate the probabilities as: home win ~70%, draw 15%, Monagas win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Monagas averages 0.2 goals per away match and failed to score in 80% of away games, while Estudiantes Mérida score 1.67 goals at home on average and have 50% of home matches with BTTS. The hosts have a higher xG (1.38 vs 1.00), register more shots on target (4.5 vs 2.4) and convert them better (11% vs 2%), so Estudiantes are likely to score at least once. However the key signal is Monagas’s seasonal profile: only 20% of matches with BTTS and fully 80% of away games without scoring, which significantly reduces the probability of both teams scoring. As a result the 'No' scenario is stronger — I assign 25% probability to BTTS (Yes) and 75% to No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Average xG indicate 1.33 goals for Estudiantes (xG_for 1.38 and opponent xG_against 1.28) and 1.11 for Monagas (xG_for 1.00 and home xG_against 1.21), totaling 2.44 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.44 yields roughly a 70% probability of at least 2 goals in the match, consistent with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: home side 83% and away side 60%. Additionally, Estudiantes averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes 1.33 per match, while Monagas concedes 2.00 on average, which increases the likelihood of at least two strikes. I estimate Over 2.5 at ~44% (Over 3.5 ~23%), therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Estudiantes average 1.67 goals per match versus Monagas 0.20, xG 1.38 versus 1.00, and more shots and shots on target (14.83 and 4.5 vs 10.2 and 2.4), giving the home side a clear offensive advantage. This edge is especially evident after the break: the hosts score on average 1.33 goals in the second half versus the visitors’ 0.2, and 100% of Estudiantes’ matches have featured at least one goal after the break (Monagas 80%), so I expect most goals after the 45th minute. In the first half both teams score little — first-half goals average 0.33 for the hosts and 0.0 for the visitors — which points to a high probability of a draw at half-time. Monagas have no wins this season (0% wins) and register only 0.2 goals per match with a shot conversion of 2%, therefore I expect Estudiantes to produce the turnaround after the break, hence X/1 is my strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Estudiantes Mérida | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Estudiantes Mérida is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Estudiantes Mérida · 1.4 pts / match - Monagas
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Estudiantes Mérida is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
1.64 goals / match - Estudiantes Mérida · 1 goals / match - Monagas
Estudiantes Mérida is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.27 goals / match - Estudiantes Mérida · 1.64 goals / match - Monagas
Estudiantes Mérida scores in 82% of matches (9 of 11 matches), while Monagas keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
Monagas scores in 55% of matches (6 of 11 matches), while Estudiantes Mérida keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Estudiantes Mérida
Over / Under - Monagas
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Estudiantes Mérida is 147% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.36 pts / match - Estudiantes Mérida · 0.55 pts / match - Monagas
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Estudiantes Mérida - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Monagas - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Estudiantes Mérida
Monagas
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Estudiantes Mérida | Liga | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.91 | 2.50 | ▲ 2.64 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 50% | ▼ 36% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 46% | ▲ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 30% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 91% | 71% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 73% | ▲ 91% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Estudiantes Mérida 1 - 0 - 1 Monagas. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Estudiantes Mérida vs Monagas?
The Primera División match finished Estudiantes Mérida 3:2 Monagas. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Estudiantes Mérida and Monagas?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Estudiantes Mérida won 1, Monagas won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Estudiantes Mérida vs Monagas?
Estudiantes Mérida score 1.64 goals per game on average and Monagas 1.00. The Primera División average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Estudiantes Mérida's matches and 36% of Monagas's.
What form are Estudiantes Mérida and Monagas in?
Over the last 5 games Estudiantes Mérida have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Monagas 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Estudiantes Mérida vs Monagas?
The statistical background for Estudiantes Mérida vs Monagas — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.