Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema: match statistics
Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ethiopia Bunna played Sheger Ketema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 8 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Ethiopia Bunna: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Sheger Ketema: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ethiopia Bunna scores 1.00 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Sheger Ketema scores 0.92 and concedes 0.92. League average: 1.77 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ethiopia Bunna 42%, Sheger Ketema 46%. Over 2.5: Ethiopia Bunna 33%, Sheger Ketema 29%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Sheger Ketema has higher xG: 1.17 vs 1.16. Ethiopia Bunna: 7.2 shots per match, Sheger Ketema: 8.1.
Match halves
Ethiopia Bunna: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.46. Sheger Ketema: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
Ethiopia Bunna: 0-15 (5 goals). Sheger Ketema: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.77 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ethiopia Bunna are favorites on paper based on form—4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches, scoring 8 and conceding 4 in that period with an average of 2.4 points per game, while Sheger Ketema have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 8 and conceding 6 with 1.6 points per game. The hosts create better chances: at home they average 3 shots on target and 8.58 shots per game with a conversion rate of 14%, and their home xG is 1.29 versus the visitors’ 1.21 xG on the road. The visitors, however, show a solid away defence—conceding 1.09 goals on average away and keeping a clean sheet in 45% of away matches, while Ethiopia concede 1.25 at home and keep a clean sheet in 25% of games. Season totals are similar (Ethiopia 24 scored and 24 conceded, Sheger 22 scored and 22 conceded), but Ethiopia have more wins this season (10 vs 6) and significantly fewer draws (5 vs 12), giving them a decisive edge. Considering better form, higher shot efficiency (14% vs 12%) and a greater average of shots on target (3 vs 2.36), I tip the hosts to win; I assess the probabilities at approximately 55% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 20% for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 54% for Ethiopia Bunna (home) and 36% for Sheger Ketema (away), versus a league average of 41%; in the last 5 matches the home side has BTTS 40% and the away side 60%. xG analysis shows Ethiopia Bunna with xG_for 1.14 and xG_against 1.03, and Sheger Ketema xG_for 1.21 and xG_against 1.23 — combined expected total is about 2.35 xG, which yields a moderate chance for goals from both sides. However, season goal averages are low: 0.77 for the home team and 1.09 for the away team, and clean sheet rates are 46% and 45%, meaning in nearly half of matches one team keeps a clean sheet. Additionally the league features a very high clean sheet rate (81%) and a low share of matches over 2.5 goals (31% for home, 27% for away), which strengthens the signal against BTTS. Considering the mixed signals (higher seasonal BTTS for the home team 54% vs low BTTS for the away 36% and strong clean sheet indicators), I project 'No' as more likely — probability 60% for No Goal/No BTTS and 40% for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis indicates about 1.19 goals for Ethiopia Bunna (xG attack 1.14 vs opponent defense 1.23) and 1.12 for Sheger Ketema (xG attack 1.21 vs opponent defense 1.03), totaling ~2.31 expected goals. Season scoring averages are 0.77 (home) and 1.09 (away), but in the last 5 matches both teams scored 8 goals each (1.6 per match each), which raises short-term goal output to around 3.2. With combined λ≈2.31, the Poisson distribution yields ≈67% chance of ≥2 goals (>1.5), ≈41% for ≥3 goals (>2.5) and ≈20% for ≥4 goals (>3.5). Season rates for matches over 2.5 are low (31% for home, 27% for away), and over 3.5 are rare (8% and 27%), so combining xG, form and seasonal trends the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (approx. 80% probability).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely Half-Time result is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 85% of matches and the away side in 82%, yielding an average of approximately 83% probability of a draw at 45 minutes. For Full-Time the draw scenario also appears strongest — home matches finish level in 62% of cases (drawPercentage_home 62.0), while the away side has a higher win rate of 36% versus the home win rate of 15% (winPercentage_away 36.0 vs winPercentage_home 15.0). Second-half data show that away teams score more after the break (AVG_2hg_away 1.82 vs AVG_2hg_home 0.69), which explains the relatively high probability of a Half-Time draw and an away win at Full-Time (I assign it 24%). Low shares of leading at the break (leadingAtHTPercentage_home 8.0, leadingAtHTPercentage_away 9.0) and the low chance of a home victory (winPercentage_home 15.0) weaken the 1/1 and 1/2 scenarios, therefore I select X/X as the best pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ethiopia Bunna | Sheger Ketema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ethiopia Bunna is 50% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 1.6 pts / match - Sheger Ketema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ethiopia Bunna is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 0.92 goals / match - Sheger Ketema
Sheger Ketema is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 0.92 goals / match - Sheger Ketema
Ethiopia Bunna scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Sheger Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 46% (11 of 24 matches).
Sheger Ketema scores in 67% of matches (16 of 24 matches), while Ethiopia Bunna keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ethiopia Bunna
Over / Under - Sheger Ketema
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ethiopia Bunna is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 1.08 pts / match - Sheger Ketema
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ethiopia Bunna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sheger Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ethiopia Bunna
Sheger Ketema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Ethiopia Bunna | Liga | Sheger Ketema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.00 | 1.77 | • 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | • 42% | 41% | ▲ 46% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 33% | 27% | ▲ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 38% | 40% | ▲ 46% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 63% | 53% | ▼ 38% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 71% | 58% | ▲ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Ethiopia BunnaGoalAbubakar Adamu
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ethiopia Bunna 1 - 0 - 0 Sheger Ketema. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Ethiopia Bunna 1:1 Sheger Ketema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema?
Ethiopia Bunna score 1.00 goals per game on average and Sheger Ketema 0.92. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.77 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Ethiopia Bunna's matches and 46% of Sheger Ketema's.
What form are Ethiopia Bunna and Sheger Ketema in?
Over the last 5 games Ethiopia Bunna have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Sheger Ketema 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema?
The statistical background for Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.