Ethnikos Achna vs AEK Larnaca: match statistics
AEK Larnaca is the undisputed favorite in this match. The visitors hold 4th place in the standings with an impressive 58% away win rate, while Ethnikos Achna sits in 13th position with just a 50% win rate at home. The difference in offensive quality is significant - AEK scores an average of 1.67 goals per away match with a 16% conversion rate, whereas the hosts score only 1.25 goals with a 13% conversion rate. Additionally, the visitors' away goal difference (+10) heavily outweighs the hosts' home record (+3). The recent form of both teams (Ethnikos: 1.2 pts/match, AEK: 1.0 pts/match) is comparable, but AEK Larnaca's class and statistical superiority strongly suggest an away win. The visitors' higher xG values (1.39 vs 1.21) and better ball possession control (53% vs 50%) further back up this prediction.
Ethnikos Achna vs AEK Larnaca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ethnikos Achna played AEK Larnaca in First Division (Cyprus). The match was played on 16 March 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Ethnikos Achna: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. AEK Larnaca: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ethnikos Achna scores 1.00 and concedes 1.68 goals per match. AEK Larnaca scores 1.88 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ethnikos Achna 40%, AEK Larnaca 56%. Over 2.5: Ethnikos Achna 56%, AEK Larnaca 52%. League level: BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
AEK Larnaca has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.18. Ethnikos Achna: 9.6 shots per match, AEK Larnaca: 12.0.
Match halves
Ethnikos Achna: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.56. AEK Larnaca: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 0.84.
Goals by minute
Ethnikos Achna: 76-90+ (7 goals). AEK Larnaca: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
AEK Larnaca is the undisputed favorite in this match. The visitors hold 4th place in the standings with an impressive 58% away win rate, while Ethnikos Achna sits in 13th position with just a 50% win rate at home. The difference in offensive quality is significant - AEK scores an average of 1.67 goals per away match with a 16% conversion rate, whereas the hosts score only 1.25 goals with a 13% conversion rate. Additionally, the visitors' away goal difference (+10) heavily outweighs the hosts' home record (+3). The recent form of both teams (Ethnikos: 1.2 pts/match, AEK: 1.0 pts/match) is comparable, but AEK Larnaca's class and statistical superiority strongly suggest an away win. The visitors' higher xG values (1.39 vs 1.21) and better ball possession control (53% vs 50%) further back up this prediction.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ethnikos Achna | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEK Larnaca is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Ethnikos Achna · 1.4 pts / match - AEK Larnaca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AEK Larnaca is 88% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Ethnikos Achna · 1.88 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca is 91% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.68 goals / match - Ethnikos Achna · 0.88 goals / match - AEK Larnaca
Ethnikos Achna scores in 52% of matches (13 of 25 matches), while AEK Larnaca keeps a clean sheet in 32% (8 of 25 matches).
AEK Larnaca scores in 88% of matches (22 of 25 matches), while Ethnikos Achna keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ethnikos Achna
Over / Under - AEK Larnaca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
AEK Larnaca is 78% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.08 pts / match - Ethnikos Achna · 1.92 pts / match - AEK Larnaca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ethnikos Achna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AEK Larnaca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ethnikos Achna
AEK Larnaca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Ethnikos Achna | Liga | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.68 | 2.59 | ▲ 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | • 40% | 39% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 48% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 33% | • 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 72% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 81% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ethnikos Achna 0 - 0 - 1 AEK Larnaca. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ethnikos Achna vs AEK Larnaca?
The First Division match finished Ethnikos Achna 0:2 AEK Larnaca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ethnikos Achna vs AEK Larnaca?
Ethnikos Achna score 1.00 goals per game on average and AEK Larnaca 1.88. The First Division average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 40% of Ethnikos Achna's matches and 56% of AEK Larnaca's.
What form are Ethnikos Achna and AEK Larnaca in?
Over the last 5 games Ethnikos Achna have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and AEK Larnaca 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ethnikos Achna vs AEK Larnaca?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.