Etincelles vs Bugesera: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a very even match between two teams in poor form. Etincelles have not won any match at home this season (0% wins), and in the last 5 matches, they earned just 0.2 points per match. Bugesera has also not won any away match (0% wins) but has slightly better form in the last 5 games (1.4 PPG). Both teams have an identical goal difference at their respective venues (-5), similar average shots on target (3.17), and ball possession (around 50-51%). A key factor is the high percentage of draws for both squads – Etincelles 50% at home, Bugesera 50% away. Given the poor efficiency of both teams and their tendency to draw, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
Etincelles vs Bugesera: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Etincelles played Bugesera in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 11 January 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Etincelles: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Bugesera: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Etincelles scores 0.69 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Bugesera scores 0.75 and concedes 1.00. League average: 1.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Etincelles 56%, Bugesera 44%. Over 2.5: Etincelles 25%, Bugesera 38%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 32%.
xG, shots and style
Etincelles has higher xG: 1.14 vs 0.95. Etincelles: 6.3 shots per match, Bugesera: 5.4.
Match halves
Etincelles: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.38. Bugesera: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Etincelles: 31-45+ (3 goals). Bugesera: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 1.98 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 32%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a very even match between two teams in poor form. Etincelles have not won any match at home this season (0% wins), and in the last 5 matches, they earned just 0.2 points per match. Bugesera has also not won any away match (0% wins) but has slightly better form in the last 5 games (1.4 PPG). Both teams have an identical goal difference at their respective venues (-5), similar average shots on target (3.17), and ball possession (around 50-51%). A key factor is the high percentage of draws for both squads – Etincelles 50% at home, Bugesera 50% away. Given the poor efficiency of both teams and their tendency to draw, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Etincelles | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bugesera is 600% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Etincelles · 1.4 pts / match - Bugesera
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bugesera is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
0.69 goals / match - Etincelles · 0.75 goals / match - Bugesera
Bugesera is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Etincelles · 1 goals / match - Bugesera
Etincelles scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 matches).
Bugesera scores in 63% of matches (10 of 16 matches), while Etincelles keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Etincelles
Over / Under - Bugesera
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Etincelles is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.88 pts / match - Etincelles · 0.75 pts / match - Bugesera
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Etincelles - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 6%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bugesera - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Etincelles
Bugesera
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Etincelles | Liga | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.94 | 1.98 | ▼ 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 40% | ▲ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 32% | ▲ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 37% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 61% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 75% | 67% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- BugeseraGoalDaniel Barnabas
FAQ
What was the result of Etincelles vs Bugesera?
The National Soccer League match finished Etincelles 1:2 Bugesera. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Etincelles vs Bugesera?
Etincelles score 0.69 goals per game on average and Bugesera 0.75. The National Soccer League average is 1.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Etincelles's matches and 44% of Bugesera's.
What form are Etincelles and Bugesera in?
Over the last 5 games Etincelles have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Bugesera 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Etincelles vs Bugesera?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Etincelles vs Bugesera: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.