Etincelles vs Bugesera: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a very even match between two teams in poor form. Etincelles have not won any match at home this season (0% wins), and in the last 5 matches, they earned just 0.2 points per match. Bugesera has also not won any away match (0% wins) but has slightly better form in the last 5 games (1.4 PPG). Both teams have an identical goal difference at their respective venues (-5), similar average shots on target (3.17), and ball possession (around 50-51%). A key factor is the high percentage of draws for both squads – Etincelles 50% at home, Bugesera 50% away. Given the poor efficiency of both teams and their tendency to draw, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
Etincelles vs Bugesera: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Etincelles play Bugesera in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match date is 11 January 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Etincelles: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Bugesera: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Etincelles scores 0.94 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. Bugesera scores 1.00 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.12 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Etincelles 56%, Bugesera 41%. Over 2.5: Etincelles 38%, Bugesera 47%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
Etincelles has higher xG: 1.24 vs 0.91. Etincelles: 7.9 shots per match, Bugesera: 5.2.
Match halves
Etincelles: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.44. Bugesera: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.59.
Goals by minute
Etincelles: 16-30 (7 goals). Bugesera: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.12 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Statistical analysis points to a very even match between two teams in poor form. Etincelles have not won any match at home this season (0% wins), and in the last 5 matches, they earned just 0.2 points per match. Bugesera has also not won any away match (0% wins) but has slightly better form in the last 5 games (1.4 PPG). Both teams have an identical goal difference at their respective venues (-5), similar average shots on target (3.17), and ball possession (around 50-51%). A key factor is the high percentage of draws for both squads – Etincelles 50% at home, Bugesera 50% away. Given the poor efficiency of both teams and their tendency to draw, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Etincelles | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Etincelles is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Etincelles · 0.8 pts / match - Bugesera
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bugesera is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
0.94 goals / match - Etincelles · 1 goals / match - Bugesera
Etincelles scores in 62% of matches (21 of 34 matches), while Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 38% (13 of 34 matches).
Bugesera scores in 65% of matches (22 of 34 matches), while Etincelles keeps a clean sheet in 26% (9 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Etincelles
Over / Under — Bugesera
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Etincelles is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.24 pts / match - Etincelles · 0.94 pts / match - Bugesera
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Etincelles - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 21%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bugesera - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Etincelles
Bugesera
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Etincelles | Liga | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.12 | 2.12 | • 2.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 46% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 38% | 38% | ▲ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 26% | 34% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 61% | ▼ 59% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 65% | 70% | ▲ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Etincelles 0 - 0 - 1 Bugesera. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Etincelles vs Bugesera?
The National Soccer League match finished Etincelles 1:2 Bugesera. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Etincelles vs Bugesera?
Etincelles score 0.94 goals per game on average and Bugesera 1.00. The National Soccer League average is 2.12 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Etincelles's matches and 41% of Bugesera's.
What form are Etincelles and Bugesera in?
Over the last 5 games Etincelles have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Bugesera 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Etincelles vs Bugesera?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Etincelles vs Bugesera: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.