Etincelles vs Sunrise: match statistics

Etincelles are in clearly better form: they have collected 7 points from their last 5 matches, recording 3 wins and 1 draw, while Sunrise have managed 6 points despite suffering 3 defeats. The hosts have scored 12 goals during this period, averaging 2.4 per match, which is more than twice Sunrise’s tally of 5 goals. The visitors have conceded an average of 2 goals per game, having allowed 10 goals in five matches, and their goal difference stands at -5. Etincelles are not flawless defensively either, having conceded 9 goals, but their attacking advantage and run of three wins in their last four matches point towards a home victory. The lack of complete season data limits confidence in the prediction, but the current trend indicates an Etincelles win.

Etincelles’ latest form strongly supports goals at both ends: BTTS landed in 80% of their last 5 matches, with the team scoring 12 and conceding 9 goals—an average of 2.4 and 1.8 per game, respectively. Sunrise has a lower BTTS rate of 40%, but scored 5 and conceded as many as 10 goals in their last five matches, creating very favorable conditions for the opposition to score. Etincelles averaged 1.45 xG while allowing opponents 1.30 xG, giving their matches an open profile. The main risk to this pick is Sunrise’s attack, which scores only 1.0 goal per game; however, Etincelles’ weak defense and 9 goals conceded in their last five appearances tip the prediction toward BTTS - Yes.

The available data from the last five matches points to very open games: Etincelles scored an average of 2.4 goals and conceded 1.8, resulting in a total of 4.2 goals per match. Sunrise scored 1.0 goal during this period but allowed opponents to score 2.0, so their matches also produced an average of 3.0 goals. The 2.5 line was exceeded in 100% of Etincelles’ last five matches and in 80% of Sunrise’s games, while the home side scored 12 goals and conceded 9. Etincelles’ attacking advantage, supported by the visitors’ recent defensive struggles, raises the forecast to 3.15 goals. The safest choice is Over 1.5, as only two goals are required to cover it, while both teams regularly feature in matches with at least three goals combined.

Seasonal data is unavailable, so the assessment is based primarily on the last five matches, in which Etincelles averaged 2.4 goals and won 60% of their games. Over the same period, Sunrise scored just 1.0 goal per match, conceded 2.0, and lost 60% of their fixtures. Before the break, the hosts averaged 1.0 goal and were behind at half-time in only 20% of matches, while the visitors failed to score in any first half and were losing at the break in 100% of the available observations. Etincelles’ advantage should persist after the interval, as the hosts averaged 1.4 goals in the second half, while Sunrise failed to score after the break. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT 1/1 outcome, with the hosts leading at the break and winning the match.