Étoile Carouge vs Vaduz: match statistics
Étoile Carouge vs Vaduz: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Étoile Carouge played Vaduz in Challenge League (Switzerland). The match was played on 8 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Étoile Carouge: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Vaduz: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Étoile Carouge scores 1.30 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Vaduz scores 2.09 and concedes 1.12. League average: 2.99 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Étoile Carouge 55%, Vaduz 61%. Over 2.5: Étoile Carouge 55%, Vaduz 61%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Vaduz has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.43. Étoile Carouge: 12.9 shots per match, Vaduz: 13.9.
Match halves
Étoile Carouge: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.73. Vaduz: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.06.
Goals by minute
Étoile Carouge: 76-90+ (11 goals). Vaduz: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Challenge League: 2.99 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vaduz shows a clear advantage this season: 23 wins and 69 goals scored and 1st place versus 10 wins and 43 goals for Étoile Carouge (7th). In their last 5 matches the visitors scored 15 goals with a 4-1-0 record, averaging 2.6 points per game, while the hosts scored 12 goals with a 3-1-1 record, averaging 2.0 points per game. Both teams have similar average xG (1.54), but Vaduz has a significantly better shot conversion rate (13% vs 7% for Étoile) and more shots on target per game (4.75 vs 4.06), which translates into more goals (1.63 vs 1.00 per game on average). Defensively the visitors also perform better: they concede 1.13 goals per away match versus 1.38 for the hosts, have 38% clean sheets and a lower share of matches without scoring (19% vs 31%). For these reasons I back a Vaduz win and assess the probabilities as: Vaduz 60%, draw 22%, Étoile win 18%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The prediction leans towards BTTS - Yes, as Étoile Carouge posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Vaduz shows 50% for the season and 100% in the last 5, signaling strong form on both sides. Both teams both score and concede: season goals scored are 2.53 (Étoile) and 1.63 (Vaduz), with goals conceded 1.12 and 1.13; in the last 5 matches Étoile averaged 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, Vaduz 3.0 scored and 1.8 conceded. xG confirms both sides create and allow chances — season attacking xG is 1.81 vs 1.54, and xG conceded is 1.30 vs 1.38; in the last 5 matches xG against was 1.84 (Étoile) and 2.02 (Vaduz), increasing the risk of conceded goals. Additionally Étoile averages 6.35 shots on target with a 17% conversion, Vaduz 4.75 with a 13% conversion, and 82% of Étoile’s matches finish over 2.5 goals with 71% coinciding BTTS, reinforcing the both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on these specific figures I assess BTTS probability at 75% for Yes and 25% for No, therefore I recommend: yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have high goal output: Étoile Carouge average 2.53 goals per game, Vaduz 1.63, with xG of 1.81 (home) and 1.54 (away). Defensive metrics are 1.30 xG against for the hosts and 1.38 for Vaduz, which averaged gives a forecast of 1.60 goals for the home side and 1.42 for the visitors (total 3.02). Season Over1.5 rates are 82% (É. Carouge) and 75% (Vaduz), and Over2.5: 82% and 38%; in the last 5 matches Over2.5 occurred in 60% (hosts) and 100% (guests), which boosts the likelihood of more than 2 goals. A Poisson model based on expected 3.02 goals yields about a 58% chance for Over 2.5, but the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (approx. 80%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Étoile Carouge has a clear home advantage this season: 88% wins at home, averaging 2.53 goals scored versus 1.63 for Vaduz, and xG 1.81 versus 1.54, indicating higher-quality created chances. At half-time the hosts lead in 59% of matches, scoring on average 1.47 goals and conceding only 0.47, while Vaduz are leading at the break in 25% and average 0.56 goals in the first half. Although Vaduz have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and were leading at half-time in 75% of those, the season-long sample favors Carouge: the hosts’ average points at half-time are 2.12 versus 1.19 for the visitors, and the home side have 33 first-half goals compared to 19 for Vaduz. Therefore the most likely scenario is Étoile Carouge leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) — I estimate this at 41%; scenarios with a half-time draw or a turnaround are less likely, which is also supported by the low percentage of hosts losing at half-time (6%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Étoile Carouge | Vaduz | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vaduz is 61% better for: goals scored per match.
1.3 goals / match - Étoile Carouge · 2.09 goals / match - Vaduz
Vaduz is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Étoile Carouge · 1.12 goals / match - Vaduz
Étoile Carouge scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Vaduz keeps a clean sheet in 33% (11 of 33 matches).
Vaduz scores in 91% of matches (30 of 33 matches), while Étoile Carouge keeps a clean sheet in 24% (8 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Étoile Carouge
Over / Under - Vaduz
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vaduz is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Étoile Carouge · 1.67 pts / match - Vaduz
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Étoile Carouge - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Vaduz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 70%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +7 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Étoile Carouge
Vaduz
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Challenge League).
Teams vs league
| Étoile Carouge | Liga | Vaduz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.73 | 2.99 | ▲ 3.21 |
| Both teams scored | • 55% | 55% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 55% | 59% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 26% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 70% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Étoile Carouge 0 - 2 - 1 Vaduz. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Étoile Carouge vs Vaduz?
The Challenge League match finished Étoile Carouge 1:2 Vaduz. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Étoile Carouge and Vaduz?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Étoile Carouge won 0, Vaduz won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Étoile Carouge vs Vaduz?
Étoile Carouge score 1.30 goals per game on average and Vaduz 2.09. The Challenge League average is 2.99 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Étoile Carouge's matches and 61% of Vaduz's.
What form are Étoile Carouge and Vaduz in?
Over the last 5 games Étoile Carouge have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Vaduz 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Étoile Carouge vs Vaduz?
The statistical background for Étoile Carouge vs Vaduz — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.