Everton vs Coquimbo Unido: match statistics

I predict a draw X: Everton scores only 0.67 goals per home match and has 67% of home games without scoring, while Coquimbo averages 1.33 goals away and only 17% goalless matches. Defensively Everton looks more solid – conceding 0.83 goals per home game with 50% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 1.5 goals away and have only 17% clean sheets, which favors the home side defensively. Everton has higher expected goals (xG) at 1.46 versus the visitors' 1.21, indicating it creates better opportunities, but poor finishing (conversion rate 5% and only 3.83 shots on target on average) limits goals. Coquimbo compensates with efficiency (conversion 13%, 4 shots on target on average) and has scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches with 3 wins (1.8 points per match average), while Everton has 5 goals and 1.6 points in the last 5. Considering Everton’s high share of goalless matches (67%) and the visitors’ better finishing, I expect an even, low-scoring game with a slightly higher probability of a draw.

Looking at seasonal indicators, Coquimbo Unido has BTTS in 67% of matches, Everton in 50%, and both teams have low clean sheet rates — 17% each. Seasonally Everton scores 1.67 and concedes 1.00 per match, while Coquimbo scores 1.33 and concedes 1.50, which suggests both teams regularly both create and concede goals. In the last 5 matches Coquimbo averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.4, and Everton has 1.0 scored and only 0.4 conceded; however Everton has allowed 1.59 xG against across those five games, meaning opponents created chances despite the low actual goals conceded. Season xG show Everton generates 1.78 xG per match versus 1.21 for the visitors, yet Coquimbo has a higher shot conversion rate of 13% versus Everton’s 10% and averages 4.0 on-target shots, which increases their real likelihood of scoring. Considering the higher seasonal BTTS for the visitors (67% vs 50%), the low clean sheet probabilities of 17% for both and recent form, I favour the Both Teams To Score (BTTS - Yes) scenario with a probability of 65% versus 35%.

Both teams create meaningful scoring opportunities: Everton has an attacking xG of 1.78, while Coquimbo’s defense concedes 1.32 xG, yielding expected goals for Everton ≈1.55; the visitors have attacking xG 1.21, and Everton’s defense allows 1.22 xG, giving expected goals for Coquimbo ≈1.22, total ≈2.77. Seasonally both teams have 67% of matches over 1.5 goals, and the league averages 2.7 goals per match, so the 1.5 threshold looks highly likely. Over 2.5 is moderately probable — Everton has 50% of matches over 2.5, Coquimbo 67%, and the combined xG 2.77 slightly exceeds 2.5. Over 3.5 is less justified, as seasonal rates are 33% and 50%, and the expected total 2.77 is below 3.5. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 can be considered a medium-risk option, while Over 3.5 is too risky.

Everton led at the break in 4 of the matches (67%) and scores on average 1.0 goals in the first half versus Coquimbo’s 0.33, while the hosts concede only 0.17 goals before the interval — a strong indicator of an Everton lead after 45 minutes. However, Everton has only 17% clean sheets at full-time, and concedes on average 0.83 goals in the second half, whereas Coquimbo scores on average 1.0 goal after the break, which increases the risk of the hosts losing their lead. On the hosts’ side there is a higher xG 1.78 versus the visitors’ 1.21 and a seasonal goals average of 1.67 vs 1.33, suggesting a moderate Everton advantage but not overwhelming dominance. Additionally, the hosts have scored 3 goals in the 16–30 and 31–45 minute windows, and concede most in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals), which corroborates a scenario of leading at half-time with more goal activity after the break. As a result I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (40%), while assigning significant risk to a draw after the break (1/X 20%) and smaller chances for a miraculous turnaround by the visitors (e.g. 2/2 10%), therefore I select 1/1 as the best pick.