Everton vs Manchester City: match statistics

Manchester City are clear favorites: in their last 5 matches they have won 5/5, scoring 12 and conceding just 2, while Everton in the same period are 1-1-3, 7 scored and 8 conceded with an average of 0.8 points per match. This season City have 66 goals versus Everton's 41, and City’s away goals per match is 1.65 compared to Everton’s 1.29 at home, giving the visitors an edge in attacking efficiency. The visitors generate 1.69 xG away with 14.59 shots and 4.71 shots on target, Everton have 1.47 xG at home with 12.24 shots and 4.24 shots on target, so City create more and better chances. Defensively Manchester City concede on average 1.0 goal away (xG against 1.2) versus Everton’s 1.24 conceded at home (xG against 1.3), and clean sheet rate is 41% vs 35%, indicating greater stability for the visitors. Considering form, higher xG (1.69 vs 1.47), greater possession (61% vs 47%) and a superior recent goal difference, I predict a Manchester City win; probabilities estimated at 75% for the visitors, 15% for a draw and 10% for Everton.

Everton at home scores an average of 2.38 goals per match, has 1.9 xG and 6.19 shots on target with a 15% conversion rate, indicating a realistic scoring potential. Manchester City have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 avg) and have 1.69 xG on the road, but they conceded only 2 goals in that period (0.4 per match), which reduces BTTS likelihood. xG comparison shows Everton generates 1.9 xG versus City’s away xG conceded of 1.2, while City posts 1.69 xG against an Everton defense allowing 1.04 xG, so both attacks have an edge over the opponent’s defense. Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Everton and 47% for City, with the league BTTS level at 55%, further supporting a both teams to score scenario. Consequently I tip BTTS - Yes with a 60% probability versus 40% for No and recommend a bet on Yes.

I estimate the total goals at approximately 2.90: Everton’s expected goals ~1.62 (Everton xG at home 1.90 and City defensive xG against 1.20), and Manchester City ~1.28 (City away xG 1.69 and Everton defensive xG against 1.04). Everton at home has 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals, and City away 71%, so I rate the probability of Over 1.5 very high at 96%. Over 2.5 stats are 69% for Everton at home and 53% for City away, and in the last 5 matches both teams had Over 2.5 in 80% of games, which raises my Over 2.5 assessment to around 72%. Over 3.5 is less likely season-wide (Everton 25%, City 18%), although in the last 5 matches the goals average is 3.8 (Everton 1.4 + City 2.4); therefore I rate Over 3.5 at 35% and prefer a conservative bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal from the data.

The most likely scenario is Everton leading at half-time with Manchester City winning after 90 minutes (HT/FT 1/2). Everton led at the break in 12 matches (75% of home appearances) and average 1.44 goals by half-time versus 0.82 for City; the hosts have scored 29 first-half goals while the visitors have 17. However, Manchester City have won all of their last 5 matches (100%) and average 1.65 goals in second halves versus Everton’s 1.31; in their last five second halves City have a +7 goal difference and an 80% second-half win rate, indicating strong comeback ability after the break. Everton hold an advantage in season-long attacking metrics — 15.94 shots per game and 6.19 on target with a 15% conversion rate compared to City’s 14.59 shots, 4.71 on target and 11% — which explains frequent leads at half-time, but does not negate City’s second-half strength, hence 32% for 1/2 as the strongest signal.