Evesham United vs Berkhamsted: match statistics

Both teams have collected 9 points from six matches, and each recorded an identical run of 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last five games. However, Berkhamsted have won their last three matches in a row. The visitors look more consistent in creating chances away from home: they average 8 shots compared with Evesham United’s 6, enjoy 53% possession, and have yet to fail to score. The key difference lies in defensive quality, as Berkhamsted allow opponents an xG of 1.08, while the hosts concede as much as 2.38 xG at home. Evesham concede an average of 2.33 goals per home match and have lost 2 of their 3 home fixtures, increasing the visitors’ chances of capitalising on their advantage. Berkhamsted also concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home, so this should be an open game, but I assign a higher probability to an away win.

The scenario of both teams scoring is primarily supported by their current form: in their last five matches, Evesham recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while Berkhamsted did so in 80%. Both teams scored regularly during this period, averaging 2.0 and 1.8 goals respectively, while each conceded 1.6 goals per match. Berkhamsted has failed to keep a clean sheet in any league away match and concedes an average of 2.33 goals on the road, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. However, Evesham has kept a clean sheet in 67% of home games and has a seasonal BTTS rate of just 33%, meaning the risk of the visitors failing to score remains significant. Despite the hosts’ strong defensive statistic, BTTS occurred in 100% of Berkhamsted’s away matches, and their average of 1.33 goals scored marginally supports the "BTTS - Yes" pick.

Evesham average 1.67 goals at home, while Berkhamsted concede as many as 2.33 away from home, clearly strengthening the case for at least two goals in the match. In their last five fixtures, the two teams have averaged 2.0 and 1.8 goals scored per game, respectively, while both have conceded an average of 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of Evesham’s last five matches and in 80% of Berkhamsted’s games, although the greater volatility of this higher line makes it less secure. The hosts also create significantly more shots on target, 7.5 compared with 3.0, which makes Over 1.5 the most solid selection with a projected total of 3.20 goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Evesham United win, as Berkhamsted were level at the break in 75% of their recent matches, while the hosts were leading at that stage in only 40%. Evesham nevertheless have a clear edge in terms of deciding the game after the interval: they average 1.33 goals in second halves this season, while their opponents concede as many as 2.33 goals per match overall. The hosts have won 67% of their matches and average 2.00 points per game, compared with Berkhamsted’s 33% win rate and 1.00 point per game. Evesham’s advantage is also supported by their chance creation: their average xG is 1.48 versus 0.91 for the visitors, and they record an average of 7.5 shots on target compared with 3.0. A closely contested first half followed by Evesham’s superior quality making the difference is therefore the scenario most strongly supported by the data.