Evesham United vs Chichester City: match statistics

Evesham United hold a slight edge in current form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, compared with 5 points for Chichester City. The hosts have scored 8 goals during this period, 2 more than their opponents, giving them a stronger attacking argument ahead of this fixture. In the current season, Evesham won their only match played and scored 4 goals, while Chichester lost their opening game, finding the net just once. However, neither defence has been particularly stable, with the hosts conceding 9 goals and the visitors 8 in their last five appearances, making a draw a realistic outcome. Evesham are marginally more likely to win, mainly due to their superior finishing and slightly better points trend.

Both teams have landed BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, and their results over this period point to regular chances at both ends. Evesham averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Chichester recorded averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. The hosts have not kept a clean sheet in the available season data, while Chichester produced an average xG of 1.41 over their last five matches, strengthening the visitors’ chances of scoring. However, Chichester have a limited sample of away data, so the BTTS edge is not particularly strong, especially given that the league BTTS average is only 36%. Nevertheless, the combination of Evesham’s defensive weaknesses and both teams’ attacking form more often points to at least one goal for each side—BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal—rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score and does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Evesham United’s last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, with the team scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 per game. Chichester City’s matches were also open, averaging 2.8 goals, with 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per match. At least three goals were scored in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 60% of the visitors’ games, while both teams scored in 60% of those fixtures. Chichester generate an average of 1.41 xG, while their opponents create 1.44 xG against them, supporting the forecast of goals at both ends. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 3.05 goals comfortably exceeds this low line, even when cautiously accounting for the limited season sample.

The strongest signal concerns the first half: Evesham led at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Chichester have not gone into half-time ahead in any of them and were trailing after 45 minutes in 60% of their games. The hosts averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded before the break, compared with just 0.2 scored and as many as 1.0 conceded by the visitors, clearly supporting the scenario of an Evesham lead in the first half. Across their last five appearances, Evesham averaged 1.6 goals compared with Chichester’s 1.2, and also recorded 1.4 points per match against their opponents’ 1.0. The risk of losing the lead remains significant, as the hosts conceded an average of 1.4 goals after half-time, although Chichester won only 20% of their recent matches. Therefore, the 1/1 pick is the most likely outcome, although the scenario of a home lead followed by a final draw also has a clear chance.