Evesham United vs Chippenham Town: match statistics

Evesham United have the stronger attacking profile at home, averaging 1.00 goals per match compared with Chippenham Town’s 0.50 goals away from home. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 6 shots and 3 on target, while the visitors manage just 3 shots and 2 on target; their xG figures are 0.76 and 0.68, respectively. Chippenham have failed to score in 75% of their away matches and have lost 75% of those games, while also conceding an average of 2.25 goals on the road. Evesham have defensive issues as well, allowing opponents an xG of 2.38, but the visitors have not been clinical enough in front of goal. The hosts’ last five matches produced 2 wins and 7 goals conceded, whereas Chippenham have won only once. Therefore, a narrow Evesham United victory is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, primarily due to Chippenham, who average just 0.50 goals scored away from home and have failed to score in 75% of such matches. BTTS has occurred in only 25% of this team’s away fixtures, well below the league average of 56%. Evesham concede heavily at home, averaging 1.67 goals allowed, and have not kept a clean sheet, but the visitors’ attack is too weak for this factor to outweigh the overall argument. In their last five matches, Chippenham averaged 1.0 goal scored, but their 60% BTTS rate during this period is based on a small sample and contrasts with their full-season away attacking record. The hosts average 1.67 goals scored at home, so the most likely scenario remains one in which they score while the visitors fail to respond.

Evesham score an average of 1.67 goals per match, while Chippenham concede as many as 2.25, which clearly strengthens the case for at least two home goals or two goals in the match overall. Both teams have recorded a minimum of two goals in 100% of their league matches this season, while the hosts have exceeded the 2.5-goal line in 67% of their games. Evesham’s last five matches produced an average of 2.6 goals, compared with 2.0 for Chippenham, making the projected total of 2.60 goals more indicative of a moderately open than a tight match. The visitors do average only 0.50 goals per game this season, but their xG over the last five matches stands at 1.54, meaning they could contribute to the final score. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, supported both by the 100% hit rate for this line on both sides and by Chippenham’s defensive weaknesses.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a win for Evesham United, as the hosts have been level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Chippenham. The opening stages should be cautious: Evesham have recently averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time, while Chippenham have averaged 0.4, and both teams kept a clean sheet at the break in 60% of those matches. After the interval, the hosts have looked stronger, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding 0.6, while the visitors have scored 0.6. Over the course of the season, Evesham’s attacking advantage is even more pronounced: the hosts score 1.67 goals per match, compared with just 0.50 for Chippenham, who also concede as many as 2.25 goals. The visitors have lost 75% of their matches so far and were behind at half-time in 75% of cases, making a draw to open the game followed by a turnaround in the hosts’ favour the most logical HT/FT outcome: X/1.