Excelsior Virton vs Lierse Kempenzonen: match statistics

Excelsior Virton sit 4th, while Lierse Kempenzonen are 9th, with the gap primarily reflected in their recent form. The hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals in the process—an average of 2.4 goals per game—while conceding just 5. During the same period, Lierse managed only 1 win, drew twice, scored just 4 goals and conceded 6. Virton averaged 2.4 points across their last five matches compared with the opponents’ 1.0, indicating significantly greater consistency at both ends of the pitch. Given the hosts’ substantial attacking advantage and the visitors’ weaker finishing, an Excelsior Virton victory is the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, primarily due to Lierse Kempenzonen’s limited attacking efficiency, with the team scoring an average of just 0.8 goals in its last 5 matches. Excelsior Virton are in very good offensive form, having scored 12 goals in five games, or 2.4 per match, so the most realistic scenario is one in which the hosts secure the result on their own. The hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goals during this period and allowed opponents an xG of 1.05, which limits the visitors’ chances despite their xG of 1.36. BTTS occurred in 40% of Virton’s last matches and 60% of Lierse’s games, but the difference between 2.4 and 0.8 goals scored per match indicates that the greater risk concerns the visitors finding the net. The “No” tip mainly reflects the probability of a Virton win with a clean sheet, rather than necessarily a goalless draw.

Excelsior Virton are in excellent attacking form: they have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while conceding just 5. Over the same period, Lierse Kempenzonen scored 4 goals but allowed 6 opposition goals, which favors the home side. Virton’s potential is confirmed by an xG of 1.49, while Lierse’s average xG conceded is a high 1.80. The visitors create chances worth an average of 1.36 xG, but the home defense allows just 1.05 xG on average, keeping their projected goal total lower. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the predicted total of 2.75 goals and both teams’ scoring records clearly reduce the likelihood of a match ending with no more than one goal.

Excelsior Virton have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals, while Lierse Kempenzonen have recorded just 1 win and averaged 0.8 goals. The hosts were leading at the break in 75% of these matches, scored 1.25 goals per game before half-time, and did not concede a single first-half goal. The visitors were ahead at half-time in 40% of their matches, but also failed to score in 60% of first halves, limiting their chances of mounting an effective response. After the break, Virton continue to score an average of 1.25 goals, while Lierse concede 1.0 goal per game, making a Virton lead at half-time followed by a home win the most likely HT/FT scenario: 1/1.