Excelsior Virton vs Sporting Hasselt: match statistics

Excelsior Virton have won 3 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 2 goals, while Sporting Hasselt have lost 3 times and conceded 8 goals over the same period. At home, the hosts score an average of 2 goals and concede just 0.33 per match, while the visitors average 1 goal scored and 1.33 conceded away from home. Hasselt do create higher-xG chances on the road than Virton do at home (1.89 vs. 1.54), but their shot conversion rate is 7%, compared with 15% for the hosts. Virton have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, which, combined with their stronger recent form, points to a home win. However, caution is warranted, as both teams have won 67% of their respective home and away matches.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS - No is that Excelsior Virton score an average of just 0.33 goals at home and failed to score in 67% of their matches, with BTTS - No occurring in all of them. The hosts have also conceded just 0.4 goals per match across their last five fixtures, making it difficult for Sporting Hasselt to score despite their average xG of 2.01 over that period. The visitors kept a clean sheet in 33% of their away matches, but concede an average of 1.33 goals, so the hosts failing to score is far from certain. BTTS occurred in 20% of Excelsior's and 40% of Sporting's last five matches, both well below the league average of 55%. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score, although the attacking potential reflected in both teams' xG argues against placing too much confidence in this pick.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in any of the teams’ matches so far, although the sample is small. Excelsior’s last five matches averaged 2.0 goals, while Sporting’s averaged 2.6, also pointing to a total of no more than three goals. However, the signal is not clear-cut, as the hosts’ xG is 1.73 and the visitors’ is 1.89, meaning both teams are creating chances for more goals than they have scored so far. Excelsior average just 0.33 goals in the included home matches, while Sporting score 1.0 goals away; therefore, a projected total of 2.55 goals gives the 3.5 line a clearer edge than the riskier 2.5 line.

The strongest indication that Excelsior Virton will lead at the break comes from their recent form: the hosts led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded no goals before the break in any of them, while Sporting Hasselt were trailing at half-time in 2 of their 5 games. The hosts’ record across their last five matches also supports the prospect of them holding on to their advantage: they won 3 times, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 0.4, while the visitors suffered 3 defeats and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. Additionally, during this period Virton scored an average of 1.0 goals after the break, compared with 0.8 goals conceded by Hasselt. The 1/1 pick nevertheless calls for caution, as over the season the hosts have scored just 0.33 goals per home match, while the visitors won 2 of their 3 away games. Despite this disparity, the hosts’ clearer advantage over their last five matches, particularly before half-time, makes a home lead at the break followed by a win the most likely single HT/FT scenario.