Excelsior vs NEC: match statistics
Excelsior vs NEC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Excelsior played NEC in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Excelsior: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. NEC: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Excelsior scores 1.04 and concedes 1.68 goals per match. NEC scores 2.46 and concedes 1.68. League average: 3.20 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Excelsior 64%, NEC 82%. Over 2.5: Excelsior 61%, NEC 82%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
NEC has higher xG: 1.93 vs 1.35. Excelsior: 12.1 shots per match, NEC: 16.5.
Match halves
Excelsior: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.50. NEC: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 1.54.
Goals by minute
Excelsior: 76-90+ (9 goals). NEC: 46-60 (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.20 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win (2): NEC sit 3rd in the table while Excelsior are 15th, with NEC scoring 69 goals this season versus the hosts' 29. Form and recent results favour NEC: the visitors have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches and average 2 points per game in that period (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), whereas Excelsior have 4 goals and average 0.2 points per game (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). NEC create more and better chances — averaging 7.14 shots on target and 15.93 attempts per game with a 14% conversion, while Excelsior at home average 4.14 shots on target from 13.14 attempts with an 8% conversion. xG metrics confirm the visitors’ edge: NEC’s average away xG is 1.90 versus the home xG of Excelsior at 1.43, and Excelsior concede 1.68 xG to opponents, so the visitors should have more clear opportunities. Although Excelsior concede 1.36 goals per game at home versus NEC’s 1.79 conceded away, the low share of matches without scoring for NEC (7% vs 21% for the hosts) and the clear superiority in efficiency suggest NEC should win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The dominant signal for BTTS is the very high seasonal rates: Excelsior has BTTS at 71% and NEC as high as 93%, averaging 82% which points to a strong likelihood of both teams scoring. Both teams generate similar xG: 1.96 (Excelsior) versus 1.90 (NEC) while also conceding xG against of 1.30 and 1.35, so chances are created from both sides. Seasonal goals averages are 2.64 for Excelsior and 2.29 for NEC with goals conceded averages of 1.57 and 1.79, meaning both sides regularly score and concede. In the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 80%, and NEC has scored 13 goals in five matches (2.6 per game), which further increases the likelihood of them scoring, despite Excelsior scoring only 4 goals (0.8) in their last 5. Considering also the 71% share of Over2.5 with BTTS for both teams and the low clean sheet percentages (Excelsior 29%, NEC 0%), I tip BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and defensive metrics projects 1.66 goals for Excelsior and 1.60 for NEC, totaling 3.26 goals versus a league average of 3.2. This season Excelsior have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and NEC 93%, so I rate Over 1.5 at 92% (Under 8%). Seasonal shares for Over 2.5 are 93% for Excelsior and 71% for NEC, and NEC have averaged 2.6 goals in their last 5 matches, yielding Over 2.5 at 75% (Under 25%). Matches with at least 4 goals occur in 64% (Excelsior) and 71% (NEC) of games, and both teams have scored in 71% and 93% of cases respectively, which supports Over 3.5 at 68% (Under 32%). Based on this, I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest and most likely signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Hard numbers indicate a match with goals: both teams’ xG are similar — Excelsior 1.96 vs NEC 1.90, and season goals-per-game averages are 4.21 (home) and 4.07 (away). Both teams scored before the break in 93% of fixtures, so no first-half goal is unlikely. In the last 5 matches Excelsior averaged only 0.2 goals by half-time vs NEC’s 1.4; NEC led at the break in 40% of those games versus 20% for Excelsior. Form over the last 5 is lllld for the hosts versus lwwwd for the visitors, i.e. 0% wins for the home side vs 60% for the away side and average points per game of 0.2 vs 2.0 in that period. Historically Excelsior are stronger after the break (on average 1.64 second-half goals and 11 goals in minutes 46–60), but in the most recent five matches NEC scored more after the break (1.2 vs 0.6) and show a tendency to score late (8 goals in minutes 61–90). Given NEC’s current first-half advantage in the stats and better form, I consider the most likely scenario to be NEC leading at the break and maintaining the win to full-time (2/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Excelsior | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
NEC is 700% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Excelsior · 1.6 pts / match - NEC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
NEC is 137% better for: goals scored per match.
1.04 goals / match - Excelsior · 2.46 goals / match - NEC
Excelsior scores in 79% of matches (22 of 28 matches), while NEC keeps a clean sheet in 14% (4 of 28 matches).
NEC scores in 96% of matches (27 of 28 matches), while Excelsior keeps a clean sheet in 18% (5 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Excelsior
Over / Under - NEC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
NEC is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.32 pts / match - Excelsior · 1.39 pts / match - NEC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Excelsior - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
NEC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Excelsior
NEC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Excelsior | Liga | NEC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.71 | 3.20 | ▲ 4.14 |
| Both teams scored | • 64% | 64% | ▲ 82% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 61% | 62% | ▲ 82% |
| Clean sheets | • 18% | 19% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 82% | ▲ 93% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 82% | 85% | ▲ 96% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Excelsior 0 - 0 - 1 NEC. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Excelsior vs NEC?
The Eredivisie match finished Excelsior 0:2 NEC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Excelsior vs NEC?
Excelsior score 1.04 goals per game on average and NEC 2.46. The Eredivisie average is 3.20 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Excelsior's matches and 82% of NEC's.
What form are Excelsior and NEC in?
Over the last 5 games Excelsior have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and NEC 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Excelsior vs NEC?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Excelsior vs NEC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.