Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam: match statistics

Sparta Rotterdam have clearly superior away numbers: they have won 100% of their away matches, averaging 3 goals scored and 1.97 xG per game. Excelsior lost their only home match so far, while their average xG stands at just 0.71, compared with 2.17 xG conceded at home. The visitors average 16 shots away from home, including 9 on target, whereas the hosts have managed just 5 attempts and 2 shots on target. Although Sparta enter this match on a weaker run, with 3 defeats in their last 5 outings, Excelsior have also conceded 7 goals during this period. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, so Sparta’s superior attacking metrics point towards an away win, likely in a match where both sides score.

BTTS - Yes looks highly favorable, as Sparta has seen this outcome in 100% of their league matches so far, while Excelsior has recorded it in 50%. The hosts have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.0 goals and posting an opposition xG of 1.83, which significantly increases the chances of Sparta finding the net. The visitors score an average of 3.0 goals per match, generate 1.97 xG and register as many as 9.0 shots on target, making their goal highly likely. Excelsior has averaged 2.4 goals scored across their last five matches, while Sparta has conceded 2.4 goals per game during this period and allowed opponents 1.86 xG. Additionally, BTTS occurred in 80% of Excelsior’s last five matches and 60% of Sparta’s, while the league average for this market stands at a high 71%.

Sparta Rotterdam score an average of 3.0 goals away from home, while Excelsior concede 2.0 goals per match at home, creating very favorable conditions for the visitors to find the net. The hosts have scored 2.4 goals per game in their last five matches, while Sparta have conceded an average of 2.4 goals during the same period. Their attacking potential is also supported by the xG figures: Sparta generate an average of 1.97 xG, while Excelsior allow opponents 1.83 xG. In the last five matches involving both teams, the Over 2.5 goals line has landed in 80% of cases, while the league average is as high as 3.75 goals per game. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams regularly feature in open matches, and the projected total of 3.60 goals gives this line a clear edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Excelsior win, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches and averaged 1.2 goals in the first half. Sparta also drew at half-time in 40% of its recent games, but went into the interval trailing in as many as 40% of them, while its first-half output was just 0.4 goals per match. After the break, Excelsior remain consistent: they averaged 1.2 goals across their last five matches and did not lose a single second half, whereas Sparta conceded as many as 1.8 goals during that period. Overall match form also favours the hosts, who won 3 of their last 5 games and average 2.4 goals, compared with Sparta's 1 win and 2.4 goals conceded per match. Although earlier season data point to Sparta's high quality, with averages of 3.0 points and 3.0 goals per game, the current run clearly strengthens Excelsior's chances of deciding the match after half-time.