Excelsior vs Utrecht: match statistics

Excelsior sit higher in the table, in 5th place, and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals during that run, while Utrecht have failed to win any of their five games and have conceded as many as 18 goals. The hosts have a clearly superior overall season record: 3 wins from 4 matches and only 3 goals conceded, compared with Utrecht’s 0 wins and 18 goals conceded in five rounds. Away from home, Utrecht do average 2 goals and 5.5 shots on target per match, but they also concede 2.5 goals, have kept no clean sheets and are yet to record a victory. Excelsior are not flawless defensively at home either, allowing opponents an xG of 1.66 compared with their own xG of 1.24, so goals from the visitors are a realistic scenario. However, the form trend and Utrecht’s significantly weaker defence point towards a home win.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as both Excelsior and Utrecht have recorded this outcome in 100% of their matches this season, while neither side has kept a clean sheet. Excelsior average 1.67 goals at home, whereas Utrecht score 2.00 goals away, alongside the hosts’ very weak defensive record of conceding 4.33 goals per match. Utrecht allow opponents an average of 2.50 goals, while Excelsior have scored an average of 2.6 goals in their last five matches, giving the home side clear arguments to find the net. The visitors also create more chances, averaging 5.5 shots on target compared with Excelsior’s 3.0, while their xG stands at 1.56, with the xG against the hosts at 2.46. Although Excelsior’s last five matches produced BTTS in 60% of cases, Utrecht’s poor defensive form, with 3.6 goals conceded per match during this period, clearly strengthens the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal option. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The match profile is clearly goal-heavy: in the games played by both teams so far, at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of cases, while the 2.5 line has also been surpassed every time. Excelsior concede an average of as many as 4.33 goals at home, while Utrecht score 2.00 goals away and average 5.5 shots on target per match. Current form also supports an open-game scenario, as Excelsior have scored 2.6 goals per game in their last five appearances, while Utrecht have conceded as many as 3.6. The xG figures indicate Utrecht’s advantage in chance creation, 1.56 compared with Excelsior’s 1.02, but the hosts should benefit from the visitors’ defence, which allows an average of 1.62 xG. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the data for both teams consistently points to a high probability of at least two goals.

The strongest signal points to Excelsior leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until full time: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, while Utrecht failed to lead in any of them and were trailing after 45 minutes in 80% of cases. During this period, Excelsior averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded before half-time, whereas Utrecht scored 0.4 and conceded 1.2 goals. The difference in current form is equally clear, as the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches and are averaging 2.6 goals scored, while the visitors have failed to win any of their five games and are conceding as many as 3.6 goals per match. Utrecht have created more chances over the course of the season, with an average xG of 1.56 compared with Excelsior’s 1.02, but their defence has allowed an average xG of 1.62 and has clearly struggled in their last five matches. The 1/1 HT/FT scenario is therefore the most likely, although the high goal-scoring averages of both teams leave open the risk of a late visitors’ turnaround.