Exeter City vs Stockport County: match statistics

The favorite is Stockport (2): they sit 5th in the table vs. 21st Exeter and have 20 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 12, indicating a clear superiority in season results. Recent form also favors the visitors — Stockport scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 goals per game) and posted a 3-1-1 record, roughly 2 points per game; Exeter scored 5 goals in their last 5 (1.0 per game) and have a 1-2-2 record (about 1 point per game). Stockport’s attacking efficiency also works in their favor: total goals this season 61 vs. Exeter’s 47, and shot conversion rate 11% vs. 10%, although average xG shows Exeter generates 1.43 xG at home against the 1.32 xG Stockport typically produces away. Exeter do have home strengths: they concede only 1.14 goals per home match on average and keep a clean sheet in 43% of home games, while Stockport concedes 1.33 goals away and have just 24% clean sheets, suggesting the game could be tight. Considering Stockport’s positional and offensive advantage and their better recent form, I forecast an away win; suggested probabilities are 55% for a Stockport win, 25% for a draw and 20% for an Exeter win.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates above the league average: Exeter 60% and Stockport 57% versus league 51%, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Seasonally Exeter scores 1.7 and concedes 1.1 (xG 1.63 for vs 1.22 against), and Stockport scores 1.29 and concedes 1.33 (xG 1.32 vs 1.32), so both sides create chances and concede goals. Additionally Exeter fails to score in only 10% of matches, and Stockport in 24% — meaning they find the net in 90% and 76% of games respectively; the seasonal conceded averages 1.1 and 1.33 also support goals from both sides. Against this, Exeter’s short-term form is negative: in the last 5 matches BTTS has dropped to 20% with an average of 1.0 goals scored and xG against 1.73, while Stockport in the last 5 has BTTS 40% and averages 2.2 scored with xG 1.5, which reduces our confidence. Overall, weighing the dominant seasonal metrics and xG, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% versus 35% for No.

Statistical analysis favors the over market, especially at the 1.5 line. Exeter averages 1.7 goals per match with xG 1.63, while Stockport records 1.29 goals and xG 1.32; both teams have season over 1.5 rates of 80% (Exeter) and 81% (Stockport). Both sides also show high BTTS rates: 60% (Exeter) and 57% (Stockport), and in the last 5 matches Stockport averaged 2.2 goals (11 goals in 5 matches) with form W W D L W. The combination of xG (1.63 vs 1.32) and opponent defense (xG against: 1.22 for Exeter and 1.32 for Stockport) yields forecasts of about 1.48 goals for Exeter and 1.27 for Stockport, totaling 2.75 expected goals. Therefore the safest line is Over 1.5 (estimated probability 78%), Over 2.5 is moderately likely (56%), and Over 3.5 has a low chance (18%) given seasonal rates of 20%/19% for both teams and the projected 2.75 goals.

Season-long metrics show Exeter's attacking advantage: on average 1.7 goals per game versus Stockport's 1.29, higher xG at 1.63 compared to 1.32, and more shots (14.0 vs 11.33) and more shots on target (4.95 vs 4.19). At half-time signals are mixed — Exeter led at the break in 35% of matches, while Stockport were level at the break in 52% of away games, which increases the likelihood of a draw in the first half. Exeter are, however, strong after the break: they average 1.0 goals in the second half, have accumulated 39 points in second halves and win 60% of second halves, and additionally at home they scored 12 goals between the 76th and 90th minute while Stockport conceded 9 in that interval. Based on this, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home victory at full-time (X/1 — 30%), with alternatives including Exeter leading at the break and winning 1/1 (22%) and a full-time draw X/X (15%).