Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK: match statistics

Gaziantep holds a clear advantage in finishing and form: they have scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches versus just 3 for Eyüpspor, and in their last five games they average 1.4 pts compared to the hosts' 0.6 pts. Eyüpspor at home scores 0.8 goals per match with an average xG of 1.24 and has 40% of matches goalless, indicating issues in chance conversion (home conversion rate 7%). The visitors average 1.33 goals away and have a higher shot conversion of 13%, with a similar number of shots on target (3.93 vs 3.87), which gives them an efficiency edge. Defensively both teams are vulnerable (Eyüpspor concedes 1.4 goals at home, Gaziantep 1.73 away), but the visitors’ superior finishing and the season goal differential (41 goals for Gaziantep vs 22 for Eyüpspor) lead me to favor the away side. Therefore I predict a Gaziantep win and assess the probabilities as: 55% away win, 25% draw, 20% home win.

Seasonal statistics clearly favor BTTS: Eyüpspor has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, Gaziantep 60%, giving the pair an average around 64% versus the league average of 55%. Both teams rarely keep a clean sheet — Eyüpspor has 13% of matches without conceding, Gaziantep 27%, meaning they concede at least one goal in 87% and 73% of matches respectively; seasonal averages of goals conceded are 1.53 (Eyüpspor) and 1.73 (Gaziantep). Recent form (last 5) strengthens this signal on the away side: Gaziantep scores an average of 2.0 goals in the last 5 (10 goals, 80% BTTS in last 5), while Eyüpspor averages 0.6 goals (3 goals, 40% BTTS in last 5). Additionally xG shows Eyüpspor creates chances against Gaziantep’s weaker defense — xG for Eyüpspor 1.65 versus xG conceded by Gaziantep 1.81, and average shots on target 5.13 vs 3.93 indicate more clear opportunities for the home side. Considering high seasonal BTTS 67%/60%, low clean sheet rates 13%/27%, higher xG and shooting activity from the hosts and good scoring form from the visitors, I assess BTTS probability at 75% (Yes) vs 25% (No).

The xG-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Eyüpspor (xG_for 1.65 vs opponent xG_against 1.81 → average 1.73) and 1.24 for Gaziantep (xG_for 1.14 vs Eyüpspor xG_against 1.33 → average 1.24), totaling 2.97 goals. Seasonal data confirm a propensity for goals: Eyüpspor has 93% of matches over 1.5 goals, Gaziantep 87% (average ~90%), and both teams record 67% of matches over 2.5 goals. Both defenses are vulnerable — Eyüpspor concedes 1.53 goals per match on average, Gaziantep 1.73 (combined 3.26), and BTTS occurs in 67% of Eyüpspor matches and 60% of Gaziantep matches, supporting a multi-goal scenario. The last 5 matches show form asymmetry: Gaziantep scored 10 goals in 5 games (2.0 avg), while Eyüpspor managed only 3 goals (0.6), so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (estimated 90%), with a solid probability for Over 2.5 at 68% and a lower 30% for Over 3.5.

Eyüpspor has a higher xG: 1.65 versus Gaziantep’s 1.14, and also generates more shots (15.6 vs 10.6) and more shots on target (5.13 vs 3.93), indicating superiority in chance creation. Despite this, hosts are losing at the break in 40% of matches, while visitors keep a clean sheet at half-time in 60% of games, so the expected opening is a draw or an away lead at the break. After the break, however, Eyüpspor averages 1.4 points in second halves versus 0.93 points for Gaziantep, and the hosts scored 4 goals in minutes 76–90 while the visitors conceded 11 goals in the same phase, which favors turnarounds. For this reason the strongest signal from the data is the scenario where the visitors lead at half-time and Eyüpspor wins after the final whistle (HT/FT: 2/1).