Eyüpspor vs Rizespor: match statistics

Pick: 2 — I predict a Rizespor win, as the club sits 8th versus 14th-placed Eyüpspor and has a clear offensive edge: 44 goals scored this season versus the opponent’s 26. In the last 5 matches Rizespor recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 11 goals and averaging 2.0 points per game, while Eyüpspor has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, 7 goals and 1.4 points per game. The visitors are also more efficient: conversion rate 12% versus the hosts’ 8% and an average of 1.38 goals per away game vs 0.94 for Eyüpspor, although the hosts register slightly more shots on target (3.94 vs 3.5). Defensively Eyüpspor concedes on average 1.31 goals at home versus 1.56 conceded by Rizespor away and has 25% clean sheets vs 13% for the visitors, yet in 38% of home matches Eyüpspor fail to score, which weakens their home advantage. Considering the goal difference (44 vs 26), better conversion and form (2.0 vs 1.4 pts/game), I assign Rizespor a 45% chance, a draw 30% and Eyüpspor 25%.

The scenario of both teams scoring (BTTS) appears more likely: season BTTS rates are 44% for Eyüpspor and 69% for Rizespor, while the league average BTTS is 55%. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 60% of Eyüpspor’s games and 80% of Rizespor’s, with 7 and 11 goals scored in those five matches respectively (averaging 1.4 and 2.2 per game), and across the season Rizespor have 44 goals vs Eyüpspor’s 26. Both teams have vulnerable defenses — Eyüpspor conceded 45 goals this season (1.31 per game), Rizespor 46 (1.56 per game), and in the last 5 matches they conceded on average 1.4 and 1.6 goals; Eyüpspor has 38% clean sheets vs 13% for Rizespor, providing only moderate protection. Although Eyüpspor generates more chances seasonally (avg. 13.94 shots and 4.31 on target per game and xG 1.46 vs Rizespor’s 1.22), recent form over the last 5 favors Rizespor (last 5 xG 1.5 and 11 goals), which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Considering the above figures and Rizespor’s superior recent metrics, I assign BTTS - Yes a 70% probability vs 30% for No Goal.

The xG model and related metrics indicate roughly 2.86 total goals: Eyüpspor’s expected xG is 1.51 (attacking xG 1.46 vs xG conceded to Rizespor 1.56), and Rizespor’s is 1.35 (attacking xG 1.22 vs xG conceded to Eyüpspor 1.47). Both teams average 1.38 goals per game, and season shares of matches with over 1.5 goals are 69% for Eyüpspor and 81% for Rizespor (average 75%), which together with the combined xG of 2.86 provides strong support for Over 1.5. The season share for Over 2.5 is 56% for both sides, but in the last 5 matches each team has an 80% Over 2.5 rate and Rizespor scored 11 goals in their last 5 outings (2.2 per game), so I assess Over 2.5 as moderately likely — around 62%. Over 3.5 is less likely: seasonally Eyüpspor have 19% of such games, Rizespor 44% (average ~32%), so I keep Over 3.5 at about 32% despite the visitors’ offensive form. The best market to target appears to be Over 1.5 at 78% probability, as it is the most consolidated signal from season percentages (69%/81%), the combined xG 2.86 and the last 5 matches (7 goals scored by Eyüpspor and 11 by Rizespor).

The most likely scenario is 1/1 (home team leading at half-time and winning) — I estimate its probability at 36%. The home side led at the break in 3 of the last 5 matches (60%) and in those games they scored an average of 0.8 goals by half-time while conceding 0.2, which indicates strong starts. Seasonally the home team wins 50% of matches compared to 13% for visitors, they have a higher xG of 1.46 versus 1.22 and register more shots on target 4.31 vs 3.5, confirming an advantage in chance creation. Over the season the home side led at the break in 31% of matches versus 19% for the away side, and a lower average of goals conceded by half-time (0.38 seasonally, 0.2 in the last 5) increases the likelihood of holding the lead. Since 81% of matches involving both teams feature a goal in the second half (>0.5 goals), I also assign meaningful probability to alternatives X/1 (24%) and X/X (18%), while comeback scenarios for the visitors after half-time were given lower values.