FA Šiauliai vs Panevėžys: match statistics

Panevėžys is the favorite because the visitors average 1 goal away and register 3.5 shots on target with a shooting accuracy of 12%, while FA Šiauliai at home average 0 goals per match and have failed to score in any home game (share of matches without a goal 100%). The hosts have not yet won at home, and despite 3 wins in their last 5 overall, they cannot convert an average home xG of 1.12 into actual goals. Both teams have defensive issues — FA Šiauliai concede 2.33 goals at home, Panevėžys concede 2.25 away, and xG against is 1.69 for the hosts and 2.06 for the visitors, indicating a number of clear chances for both sides. Panevėžys have scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches and have 3 wins in that period, while the hosts scored 3 goals in their last five, so the advantage lies with the visitors in finishing and quality of chances. Therefore I predict a Panevėžys win.

Statistical analysis favors a BTTS - No selection: FA Šiauliai have BTTS 0% in the last 5 matches versus Panevėžys 40%, and the hosts conceded a total of 1 goal in those five games (0.2 per match) compared to 7 conceded by the visitors (1.4 per match). Seasonally both teams have BTTS 50% each, but Šiauliai average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match, while Panevėžys score 1.00 and concede 2.25, indicating the hosts have been defending better recently. xG paints a mixed picture: Šiauliai have xG 1.38 per match and Panevėžys xG 1.04; at the same time average xG conceded is 1.43 (Šiauliai) and 2.06 (Panevėžys), which suggests greater scoring potential for the hosts than for the visitors. The hosts average 12 shots (4 on target) with a 6% conversion rate, while the visitors average 8.5 shots (3.5 on target) with a 12% conversion, so Šiauliai create more chances and Panevėžys have fewer opportunities to guarantee a goal. Considering Šiauliai’s 0% BTTS in the last 5 matches, the hosts conceding only 1 goal in those 5 games (0.2 per match) and the league average BTTS 38%, I assess probability BTTS No at 70% and Yes at 30%.

The xG-and-averages model projects expected goals of 1.72 for FA Šiauliai and 1.24 for Panevėžys (total 2.96), calculated as the mean of own-attack xG and opponent-defense xG [(1.38+2.06)/2 and (1.04+1.43)/2]. Using a Poisson distribution with μ=2.96 yields estimated probabilities of: Over 1.5 ≈ 80%, Over 2.5 ≈ 57% and Over 3.5 ≈ 34%. Season stats corroborate a goal-prone profile — Panevėžys has 75% of matches with over 2.5 goals and concedes on average 2.25 goals per game (xG against 2.06), while the home side scores 0.75 on average despite an attacking xG of 1.38 and only 6% shot conversion. Both teams see goals from both sides in 50% of their matches, and the league averages 2.28 goals per game, further supporting a multi-goal scenario. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (highest probability ~80%), therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 goals.

Hosts led at the break in 50% of the season’s matches (2 instances), while away teams did so in only 25% (1 instance); hosts concede on average 0.25 goals by half-time versus 1.25 conceded by visitors, indicating a home advantage in the first 45 minutes. After the break, however, visitors are more effective: they score on average 1.25 goals in the second half versus 0.5 for hosts and have accumulated 4 points in second halves compared to 2 points for hosts, which increases the probability of a turnaround. Hosts create more situations (xG 1.38 and 12 shots vs xG 1.04 and 8.5 shots for visitors) but have lower efficiency (conversion 6% vs 12%), so visitors convert chances into goals more effectively. Based on these figures the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and the visitors winning the match — I assign 26% to 1/2, with a significant probability of HT/FT draw (X/X 20%) and draw at half-time followed by an away win (X/2 18%).