Fafe vs Varzim: match statistics
Fafe shows solid form at their home stadium with a 57% win rate and an impressive +4 goal difference in home matches. The hosts maintain high average possession (55%) and demonstrate offensive efficiency with 1.29 goals per game and an xG of 1.79. Varzim achieves only a 17% win rate in away matches with 50% draws, indicating a defensive mindset; however, their negative goal difference (-1) and lower xG stats (1.06) suggest limited offensive capabilities. Recent form is balanced (Fafe 1.4 PPG, Varzim 1.2 PPG), but the hosts' home advantage and higher scoring efficiency favor their victory. However, Varzim's tendency to draw on the road must be considered, increasing the probability of a shared points scenario.
Fafe vs Varzim: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fafe played Varzim in Liga 3 (Portugal). The match was played on 4 January 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Fafe: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Varzim: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fafe scores 1.14 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Varzim scores 1.36 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fafe 57%, Varzim 57%. Over 2.5: Fafe 36%, Varzim 43%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Fafe has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.31. Fafe: 11.9 shots per match, Varzim: 10.0.
Match halves
Fafe: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.86. Varzim: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Fafe: 46-60 (5 goals). Varzim: 61-75 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 3: 2.13 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Fafe shows solid form at their home stadium with a 57% win rate and an impressive +4 goal difference in home matches. The hosts maintain high average possession (55%) and demonstrate offensive efficiency with 1.29 goals per game and an xG of 1.79. Varzim achieves only a 17% win rate in away matches with 50% draws, indicating a defensive mindset; however, their negative goal difference (-1) and lower xG stats (1.06) suggest limited offensive capabilities. Recent form is balanced (Fafe 1.4 PPG, Varzim 1.2 PPG), but the hosts' home advantage and higher scoring efficiency favor their victory. However, Varzim's tendency to draw on the road must be considered, increasing the probability of a shared points scenario.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fafe | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varzim is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Fafe · 1.2 pts / match - Varzim
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varzim is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.14 goals / match - Fafe · 1.36 goals / match - Varzim
Varzim is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Fafe · 1 goals / match - Varzim
Fafe scores in 79% of matches (11 of 14 matches), while Varzim keeps a clean sheet in 29% (4 of 14 matches).
Varzim scores in 71% of matches (10 of 14 matches), while Fafe keeps a clean sheet in 29% (4 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fafe
Over / Under - Varzim
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Varzim is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.93 pts / match - Fafe · 1.14 pts / match - Varzim
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fafe - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Varzim - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fafe
Varzim
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 3).
Teams vs league
| Fafe | Liga | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.43 | 2.13 | ▲ 2.36 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 46% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 36% | 34% | ▲ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 34% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 60% | ▲ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 93% | 73% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Fafe 0 - 1 - 0 Varzim. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fafe vs Varzim?
The Liga 3 match finished Fafe 1:0 Varzim. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Fafe vs Varzim?
Fafe score 1.14 goals per game on average and Varzim 1.36. The Liga 3 average is 2.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Fafe's matches and 57% of Varzim's.
What form are Fafe and Varzim in?
Over the last 5 games Fafe have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Varzim 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fafe vs Varzim?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Fafe vs Varzim: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.