Fafe vs Vianense: match statistics

Fafe sit higher in the table in 3rd place, compared with Vianense in 9th, but the current form clearly favors the visitors. Vianense have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 9 goals in that run, averaging 1.8 per game, while Fafe have managed just 1 win and 4 goals over the same period. The hosts have lost 3 of their last five matches and conceded 7 goals, an average of 1.4 per game. The visitors have also suffered 2 defeats, but their goal difference across their last five outings stands at +4, compared with -3 for Fafe. Vianense’s greater attacking efficiency and average of 1.8 points per game in their latest run, compared with Fafe’s 0.8, give the visitors the edge despite playing away.

The strongest signal comes from the low BTTS rate in the last five matches: 40% for Fafe and just 20% for Vianense. Fafe scored only 4 goals during this period, averaging 0.8 per match, while their xG of 1.03 confirms limited attacking potential. Vianense score an average of 1.8 goals, but concede only 1.0 goal per match, increasing the likelihood of a clean sheet against their opponents. The hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.81, so the visitors may find the net, but a scenario in which Fafe fail to score remains more likely than both teams scoring. The BTTS - No selection also covers results in which Vianense score and Fafe fail to respond, and this outcome best matches the available data.

The available data from the last five matches points to a moderate goals profile: Fafe averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Vianense scored 1.8 goals and conceded 1.0. In terms of chance quality, the home side recorded an xG of 1.03 but allowed opponents an xG of 1.81, whereas Vianense generated an xG of 1.22 and allowed 1.47. For both teams, only 40% of their last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, with these respective runs producing a total of 11 and 14 goals across five appearances. The projected total of 2.35 goals leaves a realistic chance of a 2:1 scoreline, but reaching four goals would require a considerably more open game than these samples suggest. The strongest selection is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as this line provides a margin for typical results such as 1:1, 2:0, 2:1 and 1:2.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Vianense win at full-time, as Fafe were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches. At the same time, Vianense led at half-time in 60% of their recent games, although the home side’s first-half advantage is not pronounced: both teams averaged 0.8 goals scored in the opening period. After the break, the difference in form becomes clear-cut: Fafe failed to score in the second half of any match, conceding an average of 1.2 goals, while Vianense scored 1.0 and conceded just 0.4. The visitors won the second half in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the hosts lost it in 80%, strongly supporting a turnaround after half-time. Across the five-match sample, Vianense won 60% of their games and averaged 1.8 goals scored, compared with Fafe’s 20% win rate and 0.8 goals scored.