Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr-e Babak: match statistics

Fajr Sepasi remain unbeaten after four matches this season, recording 1 win and 3 draws while conceding just 1 goal. At home, the hosts have drawn both of their games so far, keeping two clean sheets but failing to score, which significantly increases the likelihood of another low-scoring result. Mes Shahr-e Babak have not won any of their four league matches and have already conceded 6 goals, while away from home they allow opponents an average of 2.5 goals per game. The visitors score just 0.5 goals per away match and have failed to find the net in 50% of their away fixtures. Both teams average 1.2 points per game across their last five matches, but Fajr Sepasi’s significantly stronger defense and Mes’s poor away numbers point to a narrow home win.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by very limited attacking output: Fajr Sepasi and Mes Shahr-e Babak both average 0.5 goals per match this season. Their scoring averages remain low across the last five games, at 0.6 and 0.8 respectively, while BTTS has occurred in only 40% of matches for each side. Fajr Sepasi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, whereas the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their appearances, reinforcing the risk that at least one team will remain goalless. The league average is just 1.86 goals per match, and BTTS occurs in only 31% of fixtures, so the competition profile further supports a No Goal scenario for at least one of the teams. Mes Shahr-e Babak’s weak defence, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per match, could allow the hosts to win, but it does not provide sufficient grounds to expect the visitors to score as well.

The profile of both teams points to a tight match with a limited number of chances: in their last five games, Fajr Sepasi averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Mes Shahr-e Babak averaged 0.8 and 1.2, respectively. Only 20% of each team’s last five matches went over 2.5 goals, clearly supporting a low total. Fajr Sepasi have not recorded a single game with at least 3 goals in their matches so far this season, while the league-wide average is just 1.86 goals per game. Although Mes Shahr-e Babak conceded an average of 2.5 goals in a very small seasonal sample, their more recent average of 1.2 goals conceded is more consistent with a cautious scenario. The projected total of 1.65 goals provides the strongest edge for Under 3.5 goals, as four or more goals would require a clear departure from the current trends of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as both teams have drawn 60% of their last five matches. Fajr Sepasi were level at the break in 80% of their games during this period, while Mes Shahr-e Babak were level in 60%; notably, the visitors did not lead at half-time in any of those matches. First halves have been highly cautious: the hosts averaged 0.4 goals, while the visitors failed to score in any of them, with the combined average standing at just 0.6 compared with 0.4. Fajr Sepasi have had the slightly better defensive record over their last five matches, conceding 0.6 goals per game compared with Mes Shahr-e Babak’s 1.2, but the hosts’ own scoring output remains limited to 0.6 goals. Fajr Sepasi’s advantage could increase after the break; however, the high proportion of draws and the league’s low-scoring profile, with an average of 1.86 goals per match, most strongly support the draw being maintained until full-time.