Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft: match statistics

Sanat Naft are showing significantly better recent form: they have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Fajr Sepasi have won only 2 games and suffered 2 defeats. The visitors have scored 8 goals during this period, averaging 1.6 per match, and conceded just 2, indicating a well-organized defense. Fajr Sepasi have a 5:5 goal record in their last five appearances, meaning both their attacking efficiency and defensive stability are inferior to those of their opponents. The hosts sit higher in the table, in 6th place compared with Sanat Naft's 11th position, but the current trend and the visitors' +6 goal difference over their last five matches support an away win. A draw remains a realistic option, as Sanat Naft have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches, but the visitors should be given a slightly greater chance of victory.

The strongest signal is the very low league BTTS rate of just 17%, with 83% of matches featuring at least one team failing to score. Fajr Sepasi averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last five matches, with BTTS landing in 60% of those games. Sanat Naft are in better form, averaging 1.6 goals scored and conceding just 0.4 per game in their last five outings, suggesting a strong chance of keeping the hosts scoreless. Although the recent form of both teams provides some arguments for a goal on each side, the league’s defensive profile and Sanat Naft’s only 2 goals conceded in five matches more clearly support the BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5, as the league average is only 2.17 goals, and just 17% of matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. Fajr Sepasi have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded over their last five matches, resulting in an average of 2.0 total goals per game. Sanat Naft have been more prolific recently, averaging 1.6 goals scored per match, while their defense has conceded just 0.4 goals per game—only 2 goals in five appearances overall. Moreover, only 20% of Sanat Naft’s recent matches and 40% of Fajr Sepasi’s games have gone Over 2.5 goals, which gives the scenario of a maximum of three goals a clear edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sanat Naft win at full-time, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for the visitors. Sanat Naft remain unbeaten in this run, recording 3 wins and 2 draws while averaging 1.6 goals per match, compared with Fajr Sepasi’s 1.0. The visitors are also clearly more reliable after the break: they averaged 0.6 goals in the second half and conceded none, whereas Fajr Sepasi conceded an average of 0.6 goals after half-time. The low intensity of the first halves, with just 1.0 goal on average in the hosts’ matches and 1.4 in the visitors’ matches, supports an initial draw. Sanat Naft’s advantage in recent points form—2.2 points per match in their last five outings compared with the hosts’ 1.4—increases the likelihood that they will decide the match in the second half.