Famalicão vs CS Marítimo: match statistics

Famalicão remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while CS Marítimo have lost 2 of their last 5 games. The hosts have conceded just 3 goals during this period, which contrasts sharply with the 7 goals conceded by the visitors. Both teams scored 1 goal in their only meeting so far this season, but Marítimo kept a clean sheet in that match, limiting the extent of the hosts’ advantage given their defensive potential. Famalicão sit 5th, while Marítimo are 2nd; however, the hosts’ greater consistency and home advantage point towards a narrow victory. A draw remains a highly plausible outcome, as Famalicão have shared the points in 3 of their last 5 appearances.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Famalicão has conceded an average of only 0.6 goals in its last 5 matches, while its average xG conceded stood at 0.91. Marítimo has recently scored 1.4 goals per match and recorded BTTS in 60% of its last five games, but its average attacking xG is only 1.20, which does not provide a clear advantage over the hosts’ solid defence. Famalicão averaged 1.0 goals scored, but created chances worth 1.53 xG and registered 16 shots per match, giving them a good foundation to find the net. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 100% of available league matches this season, while their seasonal BTTS rate is 0%, although this is based on a very limited sample. In a league with an average BTTS rate of 56%, the data for both teams is mixed, but Famalicão’s ability to restrict opponents increases the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score.

Famalicão averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded only 0.6 over their last 5 matches, indicating a well-controlled match profile. Marítimo scored 1.4 goals per game during this period but also conceded 1.4, so their away attacking potential alone should not drive a very high-scoring game. The five-match average xG figures are 1.24 for Famalicão and 1.20 for Marítimo, while accounting for the opponents’ defensive strength, the forecast is approximately 2.20 total goals. Famalicão matches went over the 2.5-goal line in only 20% of their last 5 fixtures, while the team kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 5 matches. The Under 3.5 goals line has the advantage, as it takes at least 4 goals to lose the bet, clearly above the projected level of 2.20.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Famalicão victory in the full-time result, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, with those games producing an average of just 0.6 goals by half-time. Famalicão scored only 0.2 goals per match before the break, but increased that average to 0.8 after half-time, conceding just 0.2 goals in the second half. Marítimo are more dangerous early on, having averaged 0.8 goals before half-time in their last five matches and led in 40% of cases, but after the break they scored only 0.6 goals and conceded 0.8. The hosts also have the stronger second-half record: they won the second half in 60% of their latest matches, compared with 20% for the visitors. Famalicão’s season data additionally show a clean sheet in their only available home match and a 1:0 victory after a 0:0 half-time draw, supporting the X/1 option.