Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni: match statistics
Fasil Ketema presents significantly better home form with 50% wins at home and an impressive 60% clean sheet rate, testifying to a solid defense. The hosts sit in 4th place, while Welwalo Adigrat Uni is in 19th position, reflecting the quality gap between the two teams. The visitors have very poor efficiency away with only 20% wins and 50% of matches without scoring, which constitutes their biggest weakness. Fasil Ketema's positive goal difference in home matches (+2) and slightly better xG statistics (1.09 vs 1.06 for the guests) suggest an advantage for the hosts. The recent form of both teams (1.6 PPG for Fasil Ketema vs 1.2 PPG for the guests) and a series of draws by Welwalo Adigrat indicate the visitors will play defensively, which may lead to a low score or a draw, but the hosts' advantage should be decisive.
Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fasil Ketema played Welwalo Adigrat Uni in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 27 February 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Fasil Ketema: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Welwalo Adigrat Uni: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fasil Ketema scores 0.75 and concedes 0.55 goals per match. Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores 0.62 and concedes 1.14. League average: 1.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fasil Ketema 25%, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 48%. Over 2.5: Fasil Ketema 10%, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 29%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 26%.
xG, shots and style
Fasil Ketema has higher xG: 1.18 vs 0.98. Fasil Ketema: 7.8 shots per match, Welwalo Adigrat Uni: 5.4.
Match halves
Fasil Ketema: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.45. Welwalo Adigrat Uni: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.24.
Goals by minute
Fasil Ketema: 76-90+ (4 goals). Welwalo Adigrat Uni: 16-30 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.73 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 26%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Fasil Ketema presents significantly better home form with 50% wins at home and an impressive 60% clean sheet rate, testifying to a solid defense. The hosts sit in 4th place, while Welwalo Adigrat Uni is in 19th position, reflecting the quality gap between the two teams. The visitors have very poor efficiency away with only 20% wins and 50% of matches without scoring, which constitutes their biggest weakness. Fasil Ketema's positive goal difference in home matches (+2) and slightly better xG statistics (1.09 vs 1.06 for the guests) suggest an advantage for the hosts. The recent form of both teams (1.6 PPG for Fasil Ketema vs 1.2 PPG for the guests) and a series of draws by Welwalo Adigrat indicate the visitors will play defensively, which may lead to a low score or a draw, but the hosts' advantage should be decisive.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fasil Ketema | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fasil Ketema is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Fasil Ketema · 1.2 pts / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fasil Ketema is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
0.75 goals / match - Fasil Ketema · 0.62 goals / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Fasil Ketema is 107% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.55 goals / match - Fasil Ketema · 1.14 goals / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Fasil Ketema scores in 60% of matches (12 of 20 matches), while Welwalo Adigrat Uni keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores in 52% of matches (11 of 21 matches), while Fasil Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 65% (13 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fasil Ketema
Over / Under - Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fasil Ketema is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.35 pts / match - Fasil Ketema · 1.19 pts / match - Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fasil Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Welwalo Adigrat Uni - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fasil Ketema
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Fasil Ketema | Liga | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.30 | 1.73 | • 1.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 40% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 10% | 26% | ▲ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 65% | 41% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 30% | 53% | ▲ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 55% | 57% | ▼ 43% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Welwalo Adigrat UniGoalHafiz Wontah Konkoni
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Fasil Ketema 1 - 0 - 0 Welwalo Adigrat Uni. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Fasil Ketema 1:2 Welwalo Adigrat Uni. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni?
Fasil Ketema score 0.75 goals per game on average and Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0.62. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 26% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Fasil Ketema's matches and 48% of Welwalo Adigrat Uni's.
What form are Fasil Ketema and Welwalo Adigrat Uni in?
Over the last 5 games Fasil Ketema have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fasil Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.