Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor: match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fatih Karagümrük played Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (Türkiye). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Fatih Karagümrük: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Alanyaspor: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fatih Karagümrük scores 0.88 and concedes 1.61 goals per match. Alanyaspor scores 1.21 and concedes 1.18. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fatih Karagümrük 45%, Alanyaspor 61%. Over 2.5: Fatih Karagümrük 45%, Alanyaspor 45%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Alanyaspor has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.15. Fatih Karagümrük: 10.5 shots per match, Alanyaspor: 12.5.
Match halves
Fatih Karagümrük: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.42. Alanyaspor: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Fatih Karagümrük: 76-90+ (9 goals). Alanyaspor: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Süper Lig: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Fatih Karagümrük sit 17th with 29 goals scored and 53 conceded this season, while Alanyaspor are 10th with a 40:39 goal record, giving the visitors an advantage in goal return (40 vs 29). In their last 5 matches the hosts have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, averaging 1.4 points per match and scoring 3 while conceding 5; Alanyaspor in their last 5 have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, averaging 0.8 points per match with a 5:8 goal record. In chance creation the visitors have a slight edge: average xG 1.27 vs 1.12 and more shots per game (11.75 vs 10.44) and more on target (3.5 vs 3.13), although conversion rates are similar (9% vs 10%). A key factor is Alanyaspor’s high share of away draws — 69% draws and only 6% away wins — versus the hosts’ low home draw rate (19%) and 31% home wins, which raises the likelihood of a stalemate. Considering the hosts’ better short-term form, higher share of clean sheets at home (31% vs 13%) and the visitors’ tendency to draw, a draw is the most likely outcome, although Fatih Karagümrük have a realistic chance to win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Alanyaspor shows a very strong BTTS signal: seasonal BTTS rate is 75% and only 25% of matches are No Goal, so in 3 out of 4 fixtures the visitors find the net. Fatih Karagümrük has seasonal BTTS 47% and keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches; in the last 5 home games the hosts recorded BTTS only 20% with averages of 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. xG analysis shows the hosts with xG_for 1.49 versus xG_against_away 1.32, and the visitors xG_for 1.27 versus xG_against_home 1.21, meaning both teams generate over 1.2 expected goals. Additionally the league averages 55% BTTS, and chance metrics (shots on target 4.65 vs 3.5; shots 13.18 vs 11.75) support goals from both sides, therefore I favor the "Yes" scenario (62% vs 38%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and defensive analysis: Fatih Karagümrük has xG_for 1.49, Alanyaspor 1.27; opponents typically concede 1.21 (home) and 1.32 (away) respectively. As a simple forecast I adopt expected goals of 1.41 for the home side and 1.24 for the visitors (average of team attack and opponent defense), giving a total of 2.65 goals. Seasonal rates support a high probability of Over 1.5 — Fatih clears 1.5 in 65% of matches, Alanyaspor in 81% — hence a Poisson model at mean 2.65 yields a ~74% chance of Over 1.5. Over 2.5 is far less certain (seasonal 47% and 44%, model about 49%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 29% and 31%, model about 28%), so the optimal market to back is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Fatih Karagümrük led at the break in 8 matches (47% of cases), while Alanyaspor led at the break in 5 matches (31%). Hosts score on average 0.65 goals by half-time versus 0.44 for visitors. The hosts have higher xG (1.49 vs 1.27) and more shots on target (4.65 vs 3.5), which confirms control and superior chance creation already in the first half. Fatih wins 35% of their matches, while Alanyaspor win only 6% of away games, so the approximate conversion of a lead at the break into a full-time win is about 35/47 ≈ 74% in favor of the hosts. At the same time, visitors score more after the break (over 0.5 goals in the second half in 88% of their games vs 71% for the hosts), so there is a real risk of an equalizer and a drawn full-time result; therefore I also assigned a high share to X/X scenarios (29%) and 1/X (10%). On this basis the strongest signal is 1/1 (hosts lead at half-time and win) with a probability of approximately 36%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fatih Karagümrük | Alanyaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fatih Karagümrük is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Fatih Karagümrük · 1 pts / match - Alanyaspor
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Alanyaspor is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
0.88 goals / match - Fatih Karagümrük · 1.21 goals / match - Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.61 goals / match - Fatih Karagümrük · 1.18 goals / match - Alanyaspor
Fatih Karagümrük scores in 61% of matches (20 of 33 matches), while Alanyaspor keeps a clean sheet in 30% (10 of 33 matches).
Alanyaspor scores in 73% of matches (24 of 33 matches), while Fatih Karagümrük keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fatih Karagümrük
Over / Under - Alanyaspor
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Alanyaspor is 50% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.03 pts / match - Fatih Karagümrük · 1.55 pts / match - Alanyaspor
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fatih Karagümrük - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Alanyaspor - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 21%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Süper Lig).
Teams vs league
| Fatih Karagümrük | Liga | Alanyaspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.48 | 2.65 | ▼ 2.39 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 55% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 52% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 27% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 70% | 67% | • 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 0 - 1 Alanyaspor. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
The Süper Lig match finished Fatih Karagümrük 2:1 Alanyaspor. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük score 0.88 goals per game on average and Alanyaspor 1.21. The Süper Lig average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 61% of Alanyaspor's.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in?
Over the last 5 games Fatih Karagümrük have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Alanyaspor 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
The statistical background for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.