Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor: match statistics

Both teams sit in the lower part of the table (Fatih Karagümrük 18th, Eyüpspor 17th), but the home side hold the advantage in attack: Fatih have scored 26 goals this season versus 20 for the visitors and have netted 5 goals in their last 5 matches compared to Eyüpspor’s just 1. Form is also on the hosts’ side — over the last 5 fixtures Fatih have averaged 1.4 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 7 points), while Eyüpspor have 0 points and 5 defeats. Home metrics favor the hosts: average shots on target 3.21 per match versus 2.71 for the visitors away, higher conversion rate 9% vs 6% and home goals average 1.00 compared to 0.57 for the away side. Defensively the differences are marginal — Fatih concede 1.43 goals per home match while Eyüpspor concede 1.57 away; xG values are also similar (xG for hosts 1.13 vs 1.05 for visitors; xG against 1.54 vs 1.61), suggesting a game with a moderate number of chances. Considering this (better efficiency and 7 points in the last 5 matches versus the opponents’ 0), I predict a home win; estimated probabilities: Fatih 60%, draw 20%, Eyüpspor 20%.

Statistical analysis indicates both teams score rarely: Fatih Karagümrük 0.80 goals per match, Eyüpspor 0.57, while conceding 1.40 and 1.57 goals per match respectively. BTTS rates are below the league average of 55% — home side 47% BTTS this season (40% in last 5), visitors 36% this season (20% in last 5). Key negative signal for BTTS is Eyüpspor’s attack: in the last 5 matches they scored only 1 goal (0.2 per match), with recent xG 0.88, on average 2.71 shots on target and 6% conversion. Fatih has better offensive numbers (5 goals in last 5, recent xG 1.19, 3.87 shots on target), but the visitors’ poor form and the opponent’s low BTTS rate suggest it’s more likely one team (most likely the visitors) will fail to score. Therefore I expect No BTTS and assign 70% to 'no' vs 30% to 'yes'.

Based on xG: Fatih has an attacking xG of 1.24, Eyüpspor 1.05; meanwhile the visitors concede 1.61 xG on average and the hosts 1.53 xG. Averaging the hosts' attack with the opponent's defense yields 1.43 xG for Fatih and 1.29 xG for Eyüpspor, totaling approximately 2.72 expected goals. Seasonally the 1.5 line was exceeded in 67% of Fatih’s matches and 57% of Eyüpspor’s matches, and with a combined xG of 2.72 this increases the probability of Over 1.5 — I assess it at 75%. The 2.5 line has weaker historical support (40% for Fatih, 43% for Eyüpspor), so I give Over 2.5 a moderate 56% due to the combined xG being slightly above 2.5. The 3.5 line is unlikely (seasonal over 13%/14%); additionally the hosts average 3.87 shots on target versus 2.71 for the visitors and shot conversion is low (7.0% and 6.0%), so I assess Over 3.5 at 15%. Furthermore, in the last 5 matches Fatih scored 5 goals (1.0 per match) and Eyüpspor only 1 goal (0.2 per match), which supports choosing Over 1.5 and the hosts’ advantage in chance creation.

A half-time draw is highly likely: the home team averages 0.2 goals before the break, the away team 0.14, and a half-time draw occurs in 47% and 50% of their matches respectively (approximately 48% on average). However, the home side dominates after the break — they score 0.6 goals on average in the second half versus 0.43 for the visitors, have 87% of matches with at least 0.5 goals after the break (vs. 71% for guests) and a second-half goals average of 1.47 vs. 1.43. Additionally, the home xG is 1.24 compared to 1.05 for the away team and they register more on-target shots 3.87 vs. 2.71, which increases the chance of a decisive goal after the break. Form confirms this: the hosts’ last 5 matches read D-W-L-W-L with 2 wins and an average of 1.4 points per game, while the visitors have 5 consecutive losses and 0.0 points per game, therefore I assess the half-time draw and home victory scenario (X/1) as the most likely.