Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor: match statistics

Fatih Karagümrük are showing clearly better current form: in their last 5 matches, they recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and averaged 2 points per game. Ümraniyespor won just once during the same period, registering 2 draws and 2 defeats, which gives them an average of 1 point per match. The hosts conceded just 3 goals in their last five appearances, while the visitors allowed 9 goals, three times as many. Ümraniyespor have scored 7 goals compared with Fatih Karagümrük’s 4, but their major defensive problems should give the hosts an opportunity to make the most of home advantage. With only a short portion of the season played, a draw remains a realistic scenario; however, the trends from the last five matches point to a Fatih Karagümrük win.

The signal for BTTS - No is driven primarily by Fatih Karagümrük’s recent form: the team scored only 0.8 goals on average, conceded 0.6, and saw both teams score in just 20% of their last five matches. Ümraniyespor is more open, recording BTTS in 80% of matches over the same period, scoring 1.4 goals but also conceding as many as 1.8 per game. However, the hosts created chances worth only 0.89 xG in their last five matches, which reduces confidence that they will exploit the opponents’ weak defence, assessed at 1.57 xG conceded per match. In addition, the league-wide rate of matches with goals from both sides is only 30%, so the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is marginally more likely.

Fatih Karagümrük’s last five matches produced an average of just 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, with the 2.5-goal line being surpassed in only 20% of those games. Ümraniyespor plays more openly, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while 80% of their last five appearances finished Over 2.5 goals. At the same time, the home side has created chances worth only 0.89 xG recently, while their opponents allow 1.57 xG to opposing teams, limiting the hosts’ goals projection to around 1.12. The combined projection of 2.47 goals, together with the league average of 2.5, points to a realistic chance of two or three goals, whereas a result with at least four goals remains significantly less likely. Therefore, the best option is Under 3.5, supported by Fatih Karagümrük’s solid recent defensive record and a projected total below three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fatih Karagümrük win at full-time, as Ümraniyespor were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for the home side. Fatih Karagümrük scored only 0.2 goals per match before half-time, limiting the likelihood of taking an early lead, while the visitors conceded as many as 1.2 goals on average during that period. After the break, the home side looked considerably more secure defensively, conceding an average of 0.2 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 80% of their last five matches. Full-time results also favour the home team, who won 60% of those games and averaged 2.0 points per match, whereas Ümraniyespor won only 20% and conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match. A draw at half-time remains the most natural starting point, while Fatih Karagümrük’s greater stability after the interval supports a late win.