FC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College: match statistics

FC Cajamarca shows clearly superior form: in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 10 goals and recorded 3 wins and 2 draws (average 2.2 points per match), while Juan Pablo II in their last five have 5 goals, 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (average 0.2 pts/match). At home Cajamarca averages 2.0 goals, 11.13 shots with 4.38 on target, with an average total goals of 3.63, whereas the visitors on the road register 1.13 goals, 8.38 shots and 3.00 shots on target with an average total of 3.75. Efficiency is with the hosts: conversion rate is 18% versus 13% for Juan Pablo II, and average xG is 1.23 for Cajamarca versus 0.95 for the visitors, suggesting better chance conversion. Defensively the visitors lag — Juan Pablo II concede 2.63 goals on average away, have an away goal difference of -12 and a 63% away loss rate, while the hosts concede 1.63 at home and have a home goal difference of +3. Considering the advantage in form, quality of chances and finishing (10 goals vs 5 in the last 5 matches and 18% vs 13% conversion), I project a home win.

Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: FC Cajamarca 78% and Juan Pablo II College 75%, with last 5 matches at 100% and 80% respectively. Defensively both sides are vulnerable — hosts concede 2.11 goals per game on average, visitors 2.63, and both teams have 0% clean sheets this season, increasing the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Offensively FC Cajamarca averages 1.44 goals per game (last 5: 2.0) with xG 1.12 (last 5: 1.23), while Juan Pablo II averages 1.13 goals per game (last 5: 1.0) and xG 0.95 (last 5: 0.92), so the hosts create more chances but the visitors can also score. Additionally both teams have high over 2.5 rates: 67% for the hosts and 75% for the visitors, and the over 2.5 + BTTS combination occurs in 67% and 63% of cases, confirming a tendency to fixtures with goals at both ends. Based on these figures (seasonal BTTS 78%/75%, clean sheets 0%/0%, goals conceded 2.11 vs 2.63 and last 5 matches 100%/80%), I recommend BTTS = Yes.

Both teams have 100% of matches this season with more than 1.5 goals (home 100%, away 100%), making Over 1.5 goals the strongest signal. Average xG are 1.12 for the home side and 0.95 for the away side, with average xG conceded 1.76 (home) and 1.59 (away), yielding an expected ~1.36 goals for each team and a total of 2.72 goals. Season Over 2.5 rates are 67% for homes and 75% for aways (avg ~71%), and in the last 5 matches both sides are at 60% Over 2.5, so Over 2.5 has moderate support. Over 3.5 is less likely: 44% (home) and 38% (away), avg ~41%, which favors Under 3.5. Additionally, Both Teams to Score (BTTS) occurs in 78% of home games and 75% of away games, reinforcing a goals-from-both-sides scenario; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line.

The analysis indicates the most likely scenario is FC Cajamarca leading at half-time and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1). In the last 5 matches the home side led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%), while the visitors led in none (0%), and the hosts average 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.2 for the visitors. The home team also have higher xG (1.12 vs 0.95) and average more shots (10.0 vs 8.38), indicating superior chance quality and quantity. After the break the visitors concede an average of 1.75 goals compared to 0.89 conceded by the hosts, and in the last 5 fixtures the home team have a 60% win rate versus 0% for the visitors, supporting the scenario of maintaining the lead. Although both teams frequently score (BTTS 78% for hosts and 75% for visitors), the strongest signal from the data is HT/FT 1/1.