FC Cajamarca vs Universitario: match statistics

FC Cajamarca score an average of 1.8 goals per home match but concede as many as 1.7, having allowed 9 goals in their last five games. Universitario are showing significantly better overall form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 2 points per game over this period, compared with 1 point for the hosts. However, the visitors’ away attacking output is limited to 1.1 goals per match, with 40% of their away games ending without a goal, making it difficult to identify them as clear favourites. Both teams average 47% possession, while Universitario draw as many as 50% of their away matches, so a share of the points appears to be the most likely outcome. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in none of their home matches, but the visitors concede just 1.2 goals per away game on average, which could keep the scoreline balanced.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have recorded this outcome in 80% of their last 5 matches, compared with the league average of 56%. Over this period, FC Cajamarca averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Universitario scored 1.4 goals and conceded 1.2. The hosts have an xG of 1.35 across their last five appearances, while their opponents have recorded 1.48, alongside elevated xG against figures of 1.49 and 1.45, respectively. On a season-long basis, BTTS is also positive, standing at 55% for Cajamarca and 60% for Universitario. The main risk to the pick is the hosts’ strong seasonal defence, conceding only 0.73 goals on average; however, their current run of 9 goals conceded in 5 matches clearly increases the visitors’ chances of scoring.

FC Cajamarca score an average of 1.64 goals at home and create chances worth 1.68 xG, while Universitario concede an average of 1.57 xG away from home. The visitors score an average of 1.10 goals, while the hosts’ defence concedes just 0.73 goals per match, limiting their expected attacking output. Although both teams recorded at least three goals in 60% of their last five matches, the 3.5 line has been exceeded in only 9% of Cajamarca’s matches and 30% of Universitario’s games this season. The projected total of 2.55 goals, combined with the historically high frequency of results involving no more than three goals, supports Under 3.5 goals.

FC Cajamarca have a clearly stronger home record: they win 73% of their matches, score an average of 1.64 goals and concede just 0.73, while Universitario win only 20% of their away games. However, a draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 7 of their 11 home matches (64%) and did not concede a single goal in those first halves, with their average first-half goal tally standing at just 0.45. Cajamarca’s advantage should increase after the break: they average 1.18 goals in the second half and have collected 19 points in that period, whereas the visitors score only 0.30 goals and have not won a single second half. In addition, the hosts’ xG stands at 1.68 compared with Universitario’s 1.37, while the visitors’ defence allows an average of 1.57 xG. This supports the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a home win at full-time (X/1).