FC Caspiy vs Astana: match statistics
FC Caspiy vs Astana: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FC Caspiy played Astana in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
FC Caspiy: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Astana: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
FC Caspiy scores 0.43 and concedes 1.57 goals per match. Astana scores 1.57 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.08 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FC Caspiy 43%, Astana 57%. Over 2.5: FC Caspiy 43%, Astana 57%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
Astana has higher xG: 1.61 vs 0.99. FC Caspiy: 8.6 shots per match, Astana: 13.7.
Match halves
FC Caspiy: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.14. Astana: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
FC Caspiy: 0-15 (1 goals). Astana: 16-30 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.08 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Astana is the favorite in this matchup: they sit 5th compared to Caspiy in 16th and have scored 11 goals this season versus the home side’s 3. The stats indicate an advantage for the visitors — away, Astana averages 4.67 shots on target and 63% possession, while Caspiy at home average 3.5 shots on target and 52% possession. In the last 5 matches Astana have scored 8 goals and averaged 1.6 points, while Caspiy have 5 goals and 0.6 points, indicating greater consistency from the visitors. Despite similar average xG (1.23 for the hosts vs 1.39 for the visitors), the hosts score only 0.5 goals per match on average with a low conversion of about 4% and have a 100% home defeat rate (0 wins, 6 losses), whereas Astana have 33% clean sheets on the road; therefore I forecast a victory for the visitors and assess probabilities as 65% for Astana, 25% for a draw and 10% for Caspiy.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis favors a BTTS scenario. FC Caspiy has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75%, while Astana has BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, versus a league average of 54%. Caspiy averages 2.25 goals per season and records 7.0 shots on target per match, while Astana concedes 2.0 goals on average per season, indicating the hosts have a realistic chance to score (2.25 vs 2.0). Astana scores only 0.67 goals per match on the season, but in their last 5 matches their average is 1.6 goals with xG 1.78, so the visitors have recently been creating scoring opportunities. Both teams are defensively unstable in the short term: Caspiy conceded 1.6 goals on average in the last 5 matches (xG against 1.72), and Astana conceded 1.4 goals (xG against 1.18), increasing the risk of goals from both sides. Considering Caspiy’s 75% BTTS, Astana’s 100% BTTS in the last 5, and the combination of goal averages and xG, I estimate a 65% probability for BTTS - Yes and 35% for BTTS - No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Data analysis indicates a match with a moderately high goal expectation: Caspiy has average xG 1.77, while Astana concedes opponents' xG at 1.55, yielding an estimated home xG around 1.66; conversely Astana has xG 1.39 with 0.94 conceded by Caspiy, suggesting about 1.17 for the away side. Additionally Caspiy averages 14.75 shots and 7.0 on target with a conversion rate of 15%, while Astana averages 12.33 shots, 4.67 on target and a 5% conversion; in the last 5 games Caspiy scored 1.0 goal on average and Astana 1.6. After weighting seasonal and recent data I adopted expected goals of 1.71 for the home team and 1.12 for the away team, total 2.83; a Poisson model with λ=2.83 yields probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈77%, Over 2.5 ≈54% and Over 3.5 ≈31%. Seasonal metrics confirm this direction: Caspiy has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, Astana 67%, and Astana concedes on average 2.0 goals per game this season, reinforcing the over signal. Therefore the strongest data-driven recommendation is a bet on over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First-half statistics strongly favor FC Caspiy: the hosts have led at the break in 75% of matches and score an average of 1.5 goals before halftime, while Astana averages only 0.33 goals by the break and is trailing at the break in 67% of games. In attack Caspiy generate an xG of 1.77 and average 7.0 shots on target and 14.75 shots per match with a conversion rate of 15%, compared to Astana’s xG of 1.39, 4.67 shots on target and a 5% conversion, giving the hosts a clear advantage in chance creation and finishing. Caspiy do not concede before the break (0.0 goals on average and 100% of matches with a first-half clean sheet), whereas Astana concedes on average 2.0 goals by halftime; the hosts additionally scored 4 goals in minutes 16–30 versus 0 for the visitors, which reinforces the prediction of a home lead after 45 minutes. The visitors draw frequently (67% draws) and practically do not win away (0% wins), so a comeback scenario is possible but less likely than Caspiy maintaining their lead until full-time. Therefore I assigned the highest probability of 66% to HT/FT 1/1, 12% to 1/X as a realistic alternative, and 9% each to X/1 and X/X; the remaining outcomes received 1% or 0% according to differences in xG, shots and halftime statistics.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FC Caspiy | Astana | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Astana is 700% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - FC Caspiy · 1.6 pts / match - Astana
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Astana is 265% better for: goals scored per match.
0.43 goals / match - FC Caspiy · 1.57 goals / match - Astana
Astana is 22% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.57 goals / match - FC Caspiy · 1.29 goals / match - Astana
FC Caspiy scores in 43% of matches (3 of 7 matches), while Astana keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
Astana scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while FC Caspiy keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FC Caspiy
Over / Under - Astana
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Astana is 121% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.71 pts / match - FC Caspiy · 1.57 pts / match - Astana
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FC Caspiy - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Astana - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FC Caspiy
Astana
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| FC Caspiy | Liga | Astana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.00 | 2.08 | ▲ 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 50% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 43% | 34% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 31% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 61% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 43% | 66% | ▲ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of FC Caspiy vs Astana?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished FC Caspiy 1:0 Astana. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before FC Caspiy vs Astana?
FC Caspiy score 0.43 goals per game on average and Astana 1.57. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.08 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 43% of FC Caspiy's matches and 57% of Astana's.
What form are FC Caspiy and Astana in?
Over the last 5 games FC Caspiy have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Astana 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FC Caspiy vs Astana?
The statistical background for FC Caspiy vs Astana — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.