FC Caspiy vs Zhenys: match statistics
FC Caspiy vs Zhenys: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FC Caspiy played Zhenys in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 26 July 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
FC Caspiy: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Zhenys: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
FC Caspiy scores 0.89 and concedes 1.28 goals per match. Zhenys scores 0.83 and concedes 1.11. League average: 2.33 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FC Caspiy 44%, Zhenys 44%. Over 2.5: FC Caspiy 39%, Zhenys 33%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Zhenys has higher xG: 1.26 vs 1.01. FC Caspiy: 9.2 shots per match, Zhenys: 10.3.
Match halves
FC Caspiy: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.50. Zhenys: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
FC Caspiy: 76-90+ (6 goals). Zhenys: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.33 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
FC Caspiy are the favorites for this match: in the last 5 games the hosts scored 8 goals versus Zhenys' 4 and averaged 2.0 points per game over that period, while the visitors averaged 1.2 points per game. At home FC Caspiy score 1.43 goals and concede 1.43 on average, whereas Zhenys away score only 0.78 and concede 1.33; this indicates greater offensive efficiency from the hosts at their stadium. On the other hand Zhenys have higher away possession (54% vs 49%) and a higher average xG per game (1.30 vs 1.18), but their rate of failing to score is as high as 44% on the road versus 14% for the hosts, and their shot conversion rate is 8% vs 12% for Caspiy. Additionally the hosts win 43% of their home matches, while the visitors win only 22% of their away games, and the home goal difference is 0 for Caspiy compared to -5 for Zhenys away. Considering the better form (3 wins in the last 5 for Caspiy vs 1 win and 3 draws for Zhenys) and the visitors' lower effectiveness on the road, I assess the hosts have the higher probability.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 44% (home 44%, away 44%), implying a seasonal probability of either side scoring in roughly 44% of matches — below half. Hosts fail to score in 22% of matches and visitors in 44%; assuming independence, the probability that both score is approximately 0.78×0.56 = 0.44 (44%). Additionally, the home side kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches and the away side in 33%, which (under independence) yields about a 62% chance that at least one team will keep a clean sheet — a strong signal against BTTS. Quality metrics are moderate: xG is 1.22 for hosts and 1.30 for visitors, and shots on target are 3.22 vs 4.33 with conversion rates of 9% and 8%, suggesting chances do not always translate into goals. Overall, the seasonal indicators (BTTS 44% and a high no-score rate for away teams at 44%) and the high probability of at least one clean sheet (~62%) provide a stronger signal against BTTS, hence the selection “No” (56% vs 44%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals from xG are about 1.29 for FC Caspiy (attacking xG 1.22 vs opponent xG 1.36) and 1.28 for Zhenys (attacking xG 1.30 vs opponent xG 1.25), totaling ~2.57 goals. Using a Poisson distribution with lambda=2.57 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈73%, Over 2.5 ≈47% and Over 3.5 ≈26%. This aligns with seasonal indicators: both teams have 56% of matches over 1.5 goals, while Over 2.5 occurs in 22% for the home side and 44% for the away side, which explains the smaller edge on the 2.5 line. Additionally, the home team has averaged 2.8 goals per match in the last 5 games (1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded), whereas the away team averages 1.6 (0.8+0.8), reinforcing the signal for Over 1.5—therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). The primary signal comes from the fact that matches are level at the break in 56% of the home team’s games and also in 56% of the away team’s games, making HT draw the strongest single reading. Additionally, the home side kept a clean sheet at half-time in 89% of matches, and across the season the home team finishes level at full-time in 44% of cases, which supports maintaining the draw until the end or a low number of decisive goals. The xG figures for both teams are similar (1.22 versus 1.30) and both teams have 44% of matches where both sides scored, so there is no large disparity in chance creation. Despite the home team’s better recent form over the last five matches (60% wins for the home side vs 20% for the away side), the weight of HT and seasonal percentage evidence suggests X/X as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FC Caspiy | Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
FC Caspiy is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - FC Caspiy · 1.2 pts / match - Zhenys
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
FC Caspiy is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
0.89 goals / match - FC Caspiy · 0.83 goals / match - Zhenys
Zhenys is 15% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.28 goals / match - FC Caspiy · 1.11 goals / match - Zhenys
FC Caspiy scores in 61% of matches (11 of 18 matches), while Zhenys keeps a clean sheet in 39% (7 of 18 matches).
Zhenys scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while FC Caspiy keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FC Caspiy
Over / Under - Zhenys
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Zhenys is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.89 pts / match - FC Caspiy · 1.06 pts / match - Zhenys
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FC Caspiy - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Zhenys - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FC Caspiy
Zhenys
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| FC Caspiy | Liga | Zhenys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.17 | 2.33 | ▼ 1.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 53% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 39% | 43% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 28% | ▲ 39% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 63% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: FC Caspiy 0 - 0 - 1 Zhenys. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of FC Caspiy vs Zhenys?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished FC Caspiy 3:2 Zhenys. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before FC Caspiy vs Zhenys?
FC Caspiy score 0.89 goals per game on average and Zhenys 0.83. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.33 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 44% of FC Caspiy's matches and 44% of Zhenys's.
What form are FC Caspiy and Zhenys in?
Over the last 5 games FC Caspiy have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Zhenys 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FC Caspiy vs Zhenys?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.