FC Cetatea Suceava vs Dumbrăviţa: match statistics

FC Cetatea Suceava have a clear home advantage: they have won 50% of their home matches, while Dumbrăviţa are yet to win this season and have lost 67% of their away games. The hosts average 2 goals and 5.5 shots on target per match at home, while the visitors average 1 goal and 3.33 shots on target away from home. The quality of chances created also favours the hosts: their home xG is 1.71, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.21. Dumbrăviţa’s defensive record is particularly significant, as they concede an average of 3 goals away from home, compared with 1 goal conceded by Cetatea at home. Although the hosts have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, the visitors have lost 4 times over the same period and conceded 13 goals, strengthening the case for a Cetatea win.

Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season, which points towards goals at both ends. The hosts average just 0.4 goals per match and have failed to score in 60% of their games, but the visitors concede an average of 3.0 goals, rising to 2.6 in their last 5 matches. The hosts’ recent scoring form strengthens their chances: they have averaged 2.0 goals and an xG of 1.50 across five games. Greater uncertainty surrounds the visitors’ attack, which has managed only 0.6 goals per match over this period, although the hosts concede an average of 1.4 goals per game this season and 1.6 in their last five matches. Therefore, BTTS - Yes has a slight edge, but the visitors’ weaker finishing means it cannot be considered a clear favourite.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: this total was reached in 80% of the home side’s matches and 67% of the visitors’ games. Both teams conceded in every match included in the season statistics, while Dumbrăviţa conceded 13 goals in their last five fixtures, increasing the likelihood of Cetatea scoring. Over the same period, the hosts averaged 2.0 goals, compared with 0.6 for the visitors, so a larger share of the expected 2.65 goals should come from Cetatea. The 2.5 line is less certain: it was cleared in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches, but in none of their games included in the season statistics. For this reason, Over 1.5 has a clearer edge than a bet requiring at least three goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Dumbrăviţa were level at the break in 2 of their 3 away matches, and neither team had led at half-time in their matches so far, home or away. Both sides score few goals before the break—the hosts average 0.2 at home, while the visitors average 0.33 away. FC Cetatea Suceava’s recent form points to an advantage after half-time: across their last 5 matches, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored in second halves, while the visitors conceded 1.8. The hosts won the second half in 4 of those 5 matches, and Dumbrăviţa lost it in 4 of 5. Although Cetatea have yet to win at home, the visitors’ weak late-game form and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches make a draw at half-time followed by a home win after 90 minutes the strongest scenario.