FC Cincinnati II vs New York RB II: match statistics
FC Cincinnati II vs New York RB II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FC Cincinnati II played New York RB II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 5 July 2026. Venue: Northern Kentucky University Stadium. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
FC Cincinnati II: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. New York RB II: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
FC Cincinnati II scores 0.87 and concedes 1.80 goals per match. New York RB II scores 2.31 and concedes 1.38. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FC Cincinnati II 33%, New York RB II 75%. Over 2.5: FC Cincinnati II 53%, New York RB II 81%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
New York RB II has higher xG: 1.84 vs 1.25. FC Cincinnati II: 9.8 shots per match, New York RB II: 15.3.
Match halves
FC Cincinnati II: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.60. New York RB II: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.44.
Goals by minute
FC Cincinnati II: 46-60 (3 goals). New York RB II: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-1. Average goals 4.25, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I’m backing the away win (2). New York RB II have 37 goals scored this season versus 13 for FC Cincinnati II and 12 goals in the last 5 matches versus 1 for the hosts, indicating a clear offensive edge for the visitors. The away side dominate possession (57% vs 39%), average 13.14 shots and 5 on target per away match compared to the hosts’ 10.13 shots and 3.88 on target, and their average away xG is 1.60 vs the home side’s xG at home of 1.28, which confirms superior chance quality. Form and efficiency also favor NYRB II: 1.4 points in the last 5 games versus 0.6 for FC Cincinnati II and a last-5 record of 2-1-2 for the visitors vs 1-0-4 for the hosts. The home team do have strengths at home — conceding only 1.13 goals on average in home matches, 38% clean sheets and a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 10%) — but this is unlikely to offset the visitors’ goal advantage and quality of chances.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from seasonal rates of 67% (FC Cincinnati II) and 86% (New York RB II) versus a league level of 62%, indicating frequent goals from both sides. The visitors have scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), while the hosts conceded 8 in those 5 matches (1.6 per game), increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Hosts’ seasonal offensive metrics (xG 2.02, 6.89 shots on target and 3.11 goals per game) suggest they create and convert chances, while the opponent’s defense allows on average 1.38 xG against and 1.57 goals per game. There is, however, a risk: the hosts have 0% BTTS in their last 5 matches and score only 0.2 goals per game over that span, but the visitors’ 0% clean sheets on the season and the high seasonal share of matches over 2.5 goals (89% hosts, 71% visitors) still favor both teams scoring. The sum of these signals supports the “Yes” scenario — I assess BTTS at roughly 80% versus 20% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams generate high goal potential: FC Cincinnati II has a seasonal goals average of 3.11 and xG 2.02, New York RB II 1.29 goals and xG 1.60; taking into account opponents’ xG (NYRB conceded xG 1.38, FC conceded xG 1.30), estimated expected goals are (2.02+1.38)/2 = 1.70 for the home side and (1.60+1.30)/2 = 1.45 for the away side, totaling 3.15. Historical rates confirm the high scoring potential: both teams have 100% of season matches >1.5 goals, and over 2.5 percentages are 89% (FC home) and 71% (NYRB away), with FC averaging 16.9 shots (6.9 on target) and a conversion rate of 18%, and NYRB 13.1 (5.0 on target) and 10%. A Poisson model on xG=3.15 gives about a 61% chance of at least 3 goals, while empirical seasonal averages (89% and 71% → 80% average) indicate a stronger signal; averaging these approaches I rate Over 2.5 goals at around 75%. I treat Over 1.5 as almost certain (estimate 96%) given both teams’ 100% season results >1.5, but the best line to play is Over 2.5 due to the expected 3.15 goals and high seasonOver25 (89% vs 71%). I rate Over 3.5 moderately (≈47%) — although FC has season Over 3.5 at 78%, NYRB only 14% and Poisson gave ~39%, so Under 3.5 remains a realistic risk.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
FC Cincinnati II led at half-time in 56% of matches (5 times this season) and average 1.22 goals by the break versus 0.43 for New York RB II, giving the hosts a clear first-half advantage. Over the whole season the home side average 3.11 goals with xG 2.02, while the visitors have 1.29 goals and xG 1.60, and the hosts win 67% of matches versus 43% for the visitors, so the season profile favors a home victory after 90 minutes. However, one must account for the hosts' poor form in the last 5 matches (record 'llllw' and only 20% wins in the last 5), while New York RB II have 40% wins in their last 5, which increases the risk of a second-half drop in effectiveness. Additionally, 67% of the hosts' matches end with both teams scoring (seasonBTTSPercentage_home 67%) and the hosts average 2.56 goals in second halves versus 1.57 for the visitors, therefore the most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and holding the win to full-time (1/1), with a material risk of a turnaround to a draw after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FC Cincinnati II | New York RB II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
New York RB II is 133% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - FC Cincinnati II · 1.4 pts / match - New York RB II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
New York RB II is 166% better for: goals scored per match.
0.87 goals / match - FC Cincinnati II · 2.31 goals / match - New York RB II
New York RB II is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.8 goals / match - FC Cincinnati II · 1.38 goals / match - New York RB II
FC Cincinnati II scores in 53% of matches (8 of 15 matches), while New York RB II keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
New York RB II scores in 94% of matches (15 of 16 matches), while FC Cincinnati II keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FC Cincinnati II
Over / Under - New York RB II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
New York RB II is 114% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.73 pts / match - FC Cincinnati II · 1.56 pts / match - New York RB II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FC Cincinnati II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
New York RB II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FC Cincinnati II
New York RB II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| FC Cincinnati II | Liga | New York RB II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.67 | 3.24 | ▲ 3.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 61% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 65% | ▲ 81% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 22% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | • 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 84% | ▼ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): FC Cincinnati II 2 - 1 - 1 New York RB II. Average goals 4.25, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of FC Cincinnati II vs New York RB II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished FC Cincinnati II 2:2 New York RB II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Cincinnati II and New York RB II?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches FC Cincinnati II won 2, New York RB II won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before FC Cincinnati II vs New York RB II?
FC Cincinnati II score 0.87 goals per game on average and New York RB II 2.31. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 33% of FC Cincinnati II's matches and 75% of New York RB II's.
What form are FC Cincinnati II and New York RB II in?
Over the last 5 games FC Cincinnati II have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and New York RB II 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FC Cincinnati II vs New York RB II?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for FC Cincinnati II vs New York RB II: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.