FC Cincinnati II vs Orlando City II: match statistics
FC Cincinnati II vs Orlando City II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FC Cincinnati II played Orlando City II in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 12 July 2026. Venue: Northern Kentucky University Stadium. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
FC Cincinnati II: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Orlando City II: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
FC Cincinnati II scores 0.94 and concedes 1.81 goals per match. Orlando City II scores 2.24 and concedes 1.76. League average: 3.23 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FC Cincinnati II 38%, Orlando City II 88%. Over 2.5: FC Cincinnati II 56%, Orlando City II 82%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Orlando City II has higher xG: 1.86 vs 1.26. FC Cincinnati II: 9.9 shots per match, Orlando City II: 15.7.
Match halves
FC Cincinnati II: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.69. Orlando City II: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 1.53.
Goals by minute
FC Cincinnati II: 46-60 (4 goals). Orlando City II: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.23 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Orlando City II are the favorites based on league position and goal output: they sit 7th versus 27th FC Cincinnati II and have 38 goals scored compared to the hosts' 15. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 9 goals and averaged 1.6 points per game, while the hosts have managed just 3 goals and 0.8 pts per game. Match stats show Orlando superiority in control and chance quality — 57% possession and 12.43 average shots per away game versus 39% and 10.22 for the hosts, and higher average xG (1.48 vs 1.30). Defensively both teams conceded 8 goals in the last 5, but the hosts have a higher xG against at home (1.64) and concede on average 1.22 goals per game, which combined with their low goal output (3 in 5) works against them. Considering the goal differential (38 vs 15), better xG and twice the average points in the last 5 matches (1.6 vs 0.8), I back the away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Season-long indicators strongly favor BTTS - FC Cincinnati II has a season BTTS of 100%, Orlando City II 71%, vs. a league average of 62%. Goal statistics show hosts average 2.6 scored and concede 2.1 per match, while visitors score 1.71 and concede 1.29, indicating both teams create goals. xG also supports both teams to score: hosts have xG_for 2.14 versus visitors' xG_against 1.44, and visitors have xG_for 1.48 versus hosts' xG_against 1.76, so both sides have realistic chances of scoring. The only counter-signal is the hosts' recent form — in the last 5 matches BTTS only 20% and an average of 0.6 goals — while Orlando in their last 5 have BTTS 100% and average 1.8 goals. Considering the hosts' season-long 100% BTTS, hosts' lack of clean sheets (0% CS) and the league-wide average of 3.27 goals per match, I assess BTTS probability at 80% vs 20% and recommend backing 'BTTS - Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
FC Cincinnati II scores an average of 2.6 goals per home match with xG 2.14, while Orlando City II have 1.71 goals and xG 1.48, indicating a clear attacking edge for the hosts. Both teams concede a lot — hosts 2.1, visitors 1.29 — and BTTS rate is 100% for the hosts and 71% for the visitors, so both sides frequently find the net. Average expected goals combining xG and defensive numbers yield about 1.80 for the hosts and 1.60 for the visitors (total 3.40), and together with seasonal over stats (over 1.5: hosts 100%, visitors 86%; over 2.5: hosts 100%, visitors 57%) this points to a high-scoring game. Additionally, the hosts average 18 shots and 8.3 on target versus the visitors' 12.43 and 4.43, increasing the likelihood of clear scoring opportunities. For these reasons the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: Over at the 1.5 line) — Over 2.5 also has a high probability, while Over 3.5 is less certain.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 1/1 scenario (home team leading at half-time and ultimately winning) because the home side score on average 1.0 goals by half-time versus 0.29 for the visitors; in a simple Poisson model this corresponds to approximately a 53% chance that FC Cincinnati II will lead at the break (draw ~36%, away lead ~11%). For the full match the xG-based forecast also favors the hosts: home xG is 2.14 versus 1.48 for the visitors, and the averaged expected goals (≈1.79 for the home team vs 1.62 for the visitors) yield an estimated ~42% chance of a home win and ~35% chance of an away win. The home side also have a strong second half — they score on average 1.6 goals in the second half and have collected 19 points in second halves (an average of 1.9 points per match in second halves), which increases the probability of maintaining a lead after the break. Although the visitors have a better overall away win rate (57% wins) and good recent form in the last five matches ('wwldd'), the hosts possess a potent home attack (on average 2.6 goals per home match), more shots on target (8.3 vs 4.43) and 22 goals scored before half-time this season, all supporting the scenario of the home team leading at the break and holding on to win. Consequently, the model assigns the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (39%), with X/1 (15%) and X/2 (12%) as the next most significant signals.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FC Cincinnati II | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Orlando City II is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - FC Cincinnati II · 1.6 pts / match - Orlando City II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Orlando City II is 138% better for: goals scored per match.
0.94 goals / match - FC Cincinnati II · 2.24 goals / match - Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati II scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while Orlando City II keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 17 matches).
Orlando City II scores in 94% of matches (16 of 17 matches), while FC Cincinnati II keeps a clean sheet in 19% (3 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FC Cincinnati II
Over / Under - Orlando City II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Orlando City II is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.69 pts / match - FC Cincinnati II · 0.82 pts / match - Orlando City II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FC Cincinnati II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Orlando City II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FC Cincinnati II
Orlando City II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| FC Cincinnati II | Liga | Orlando City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.75 | 3.23 | ▲ 4.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 61% | ▲ 88% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 56% | 65% | ▲ 82% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 22% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 75% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 84% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: FC Cincinnati II 1 - 0 - 0 Orlando City II. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of FC Cincinnati II vs Orlando City II?
The MLS Next Pro match finished FC Cincinnati II 1:2 Orlando City II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before FC Cincinnati II vs Orlando City II?
FC Cincinnati II score 0.94 goals per game on average and Orlando City II 2.24. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 38% of FC Cincinnati II's matches and 88% of Orlando City II's.
What form are FC Cincinnati II and Orlando City II in?
Over the last 5 games FC Cincinnati II have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Orlando City II 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FC Cincinnati II vs Orlando City II?
The statistical background for FC Cincinnati II vs Orlando City II — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.