FC Seoul vs Incheon United: match statistics

FC Seoul sit 1st in the table, while Incheon United are seventh, and the difference in current form is clearly reflected in their recent results: the hosts have collected 13 points and scored 17 goals, compared with just 6 points and 7 goals for the visitors. At home, Seoul win 58% of their matches, average 1.75 goals and keep a clean sheet in 58% of games, whereas Incheon concede an average of 1.17 goals away from home. The hosts also create more high-quality chances: their average home xG stands at 1.62, compared with Incheon’s 1.41 away from home, while they also register 4.58 shots on target per match versus 3.83 for their opponents. Incheon are capable of drawing away from home, as shown by a 33% draw rate and three draws in their last five league fixtures, but just one win during that period limits their chances. Seoul’s advantage in form, attacking momentum and defensive stability points to a home victory.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are slightly positive for both sides: FC Seoul have seen this outcome in 54% of their matches, while Incheon United have recorded it in 58%, compared with the league average of 52%. The visitors score an average of 1.50 goals per match, while the hosts create 1.46 xG, with the opposition defences conceding 1.22 and 1.29 xG respectively. Incheon have recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of their last five matches, although FC Seoul have seen it in only 40% of games thanks to a very strong defence that has conceded just 0.8 goals per match. At the same time, Seoul are in excellent attacking form, averaging 3.4 goals and 2.02 xG across their last five appearances, making a goal from them highly likely. The stronger attacking signals and the visitors' solid scoring record—they have failed to score in only 17% of their league matches—slightly favour BTTS - Yes, meaning both teams to score.

FC Seoul are in excellent offensive form: they have scored an average of 3.4 goals in their last five matches, with an xG of 2.02, while Incheon have allowed opponents just 1.23 xG over the same period. Seoul conceded only 0.8 goals per game in their last five appearances and generated just 0.99 xG against them defensively, limiting the projection for the visitors to 0.95 goals. Over the course of the season, matches involving both teams have rarely exceeded three goals: under 3.5 goals landed in 85% of Seoul’s matches and 75% of Incheon’s. Although Over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches, the 3.5 line offers a clearer safety margin with 2.60 goals expected. Therefore, the most favorable selection is Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a victory for FC Seoul, as Incheon were level at the break in 9 of their 12 league matches, or 75% of the time, and had that result in all five of their last five games. FC Seoul are clearly in stronger current form, however: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 3.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, compared with Incheon’s averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In their last five appearances, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded after the break, while the visitors averaged 0.8 for both goals scored and conceded. Seasonal xG figures are relatively even, at 1.46 for Seoul versus 1.41 for Incheon, but recent form and the hosts’ superiority after half-time point to a turnaround in the second half. Additionally, Incheon have not once been behind at the break this season, which supports a cautious start rather than a lead for either side.