FCV Dender EH vs Patro Eisden: match statistics

FCV Dender EH have won 4 of their last 5 matches and sit 2nd, while Patro Eisden have suffered 4 defeats in their last five games and are 13th in the table. The hosts have won both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 2 goals and yet to concede, whereas the visitors have lost every away game, conceding an average of 3 goals. Dender’s superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.52, while Patro Eisden allow opponents an xG of 2.12. The visitors can score an average of 1.5 goals away from home, but their 1.32 xG and just 4 shots on target per match may not be enough against the hosts’ highly resilient defence. The most likely scenario is a controlled FCV Dender EH victory, probably with a clean sheet or conceding no more than one goal.

Seasonal data strongly supports goals at both ends: both FCV Dender EH and Patro Eisden recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team kept a clean sheet. Patro Eisden concede as many as 3.00 goals per match on average, with an xG against of 2.12, which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. The visitors should also find the net, as they average 4.0 shots on target and score 1.50 goals per match, while Dender’s defense allowed opponents to score 1.67 goals per game this season. The main risk to BTTS - Yes is the hosts’ excellent current defensive form: they have conceded just 0.4 goals across their last five matches and recorded BTTS in only 20% of them. Despite this improvement, Patro’s defensive weakness and their run of five consecutive matches with BTTS at 100% give a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have gone above this line in 100% of their matches so far this season. Patro Eisden has conceded an average of 2.2 goals in its last 5 matches, while its average xG conceded stands at 1.51, which supports the expectation of at least two goals for the home side. FCV Dender EH has recently created chances worth an average of 1.96 xG per match, clearly higher than Patro Eisden’s 1.27 xG. Caution is advised with higher lines due to Dender’s strong defensive record in its last 5 matches, in which it conceded just 0.4 goals per game, and the fact that only 20% of its matches during this period produced Over 2.5 goals. The projected total of 2.70 goals points to an advantage for Over 1.5, while Over 2.5 remains a moderately risky selection.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a win for FCV Dender EH, as the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Patro Eisden have lost 4 times during that period. Dender have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals over their last five matches, whereas the visitors have allowed their opponents to score 2.2 goals per game. In the first halves, the hosts have drawn 40% of their recent matches, while Patro Eisden have not led at the break on any occasion and have gone into half-time behind in as many as 60% of their games. After the interval, Dender have scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded none, while Patro Eisden have conceded 1.4 goals per match during that period. In addition, the visitors’ xG against stands at 2.12 compared with 1.13 for Dender, clearly supporting the hosts’ advantage in the final outcome.