Fenerbahçe vs İstanbul Başakşehir: match statistics

Fenerbahçe are favorites thanks to a clear home offensive edge: they average 2.27 goals per match and 2.16 xG at home versus 1.47 goals and 1.52 xG away for İstanbul Başakşehir. The hosts generate significantly more chances — 19.53 shots and 6.87 on target per match with 63% possession, while the visitors record 13.87 shots, 4.53 on target and 55% possession. Conversely, Başakşehir show a solid defensive trend: only 1 goal conceded in the last 5 matches, an average of 0.93 goals conceded away and 40% clean sheets, whereas Fenerbahçe have conceded 6 goals in their last 5 outings and have a 27% clean sheet rate at home. Additionally, the hosts are unbeaten at home this season (67% home wins, 0% home losses) and have 0% matches without scoring, which reinforces their advantage despite the visitors having a better recent points average in the last 5 matches (1.8 vs 1.4). Based on this, I forecast a Fenerbahçe win, approximate probabilities: 60% home, 25% draw and 15% away.

Seasonally Fenerbahçe has BTTS at 63%, scores on average 1.88 goals and concedes 1.06, while İstanbul Başakşehir has BTTS 47%, scores on average 1.47 and concedes 0.93; the league records BTTS 54%, indicating a moderate tendency toward both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches both teams have recorded only 20% BTTS, and Başakşehir conceded a total of 1 goal in those 5 fixtures (0.2 goals per match), which significantly lowers the probability of a Goal/Goal. Additionally both teams have high clean sheet rates: Fenerbahçe 38% and Başakşehir 40%, and the seasonal goals conceded figures (1.06 vs 0.93) do not indicate high susceptibility to conceding. Offensively they are similar (seasonal xG 1.50 for Fenerbahçe and 1.52 for Başakşehir; in the last 5 matches xG 1.69 vs 1.81), so at least one goal is plausible, but that does not guarantee BTTS. Overall, due to the strong defensive signal in form and only 20% BTTS in the last 5 meetings for both sides, I tip BTTS - No with a probability of 60% versus 40% for BTTS - Yes.

The model and data indicate expected goals of approximately 1.41 for Fenerbahçe and 1.44 for İstanbul Başakşehir, totaling 2.85 goals. Season metrics show both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals — 81% for the home side and 80% for the away — and the Poisson for λ=2.85 yields a probability of a result ≥2 of about 78%, which strongly supports Over 1.5. Offensive data reinforce this: attacking xG 1.5 (Fener) vs 1.52 (Başakşehir), last 5 matches xG 1.69 and 1.81 respectively, and shots on target 5.06 vs 4.53 with conversion 14% vs 11%, increasing the chance of at least 2 goals in the match. The 2.5 line is less clear — the model estimates Over 2.5 at ~54% (seasonal over25: 56%/60%), while Over 3.5 is around 32% (seasonal over35: 31%/13%). Therefore the best and strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.

Seasonally Fenerbahçe led at the break in 7 matches (44%) and scores on average 0.94 goals by half-time versus 0.53 for Başakşehir, but the most common half-time score is a draw — the hosts were level at the interval in 8 matches (50%). In the second half the hosts’ advantage is more pronounced: in the last 5 fixtures Fenerbahçe scored on average 1.2 goals after the break while Başakşehir only 0.6, and across the season the hosts have a higher shot conversion rate of 14% versus the visitors’ 11% and average 1.88 goals scored per match. Additionally, Fenerbahçe have scored 8 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to the visitors’ 5, indicating a tendency to decide matches after the break. Based on this, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time with a home win after 90 minutes (X/1), which I estimate at about 25%, with a significant but not dominant probability of the hosts leading and holding the lead at half-time/full-time (1/1 ≈ 22%).