Ferencváros vs Diósgyőr: match statistics

Ferencváros at home averages 1.92 goals per match, records 6.75 shots on target and 18.33 total shots, while Diósgyőr away manage only 3.5 shots on target, 10.71 shots and 1.21 goals per match. The difference in chance quality is confirmed by xG values: Ferencváros has average xG For at home 2.23 versus 1.22 xG For for visitors away, and Diósgyőr concedes 1.79 xG on the road while Ferencváros concedes 1.16 xG at home. Recent form over the last five matches clearly favors the hosts — Ferencváros hold a 'wwldw' record, scored 8 and conceded 6 in their last five and average 2.0 points per match, whereas Diósgyőr are 'ldlll', scored 3, conceded 11 and average 0.2 points per match. Defensively the hosts have a significant advantage: Ferencváros concede 1.42 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 25% of home matches, while the visitors concede 2.14 goals away, have 0% clean sheets and fail to score in 21% of away games versus 8% of matches without a goal by the hosts. Considering the xG advantage (2.23 vs 1.22), higher number of shots on target (6.75 vs 3.5) and clearly better form (2.0 vs 0.2 points per match in the last five), I forecast a Ferencváros win with approximately 72% probability, draw 18% and a Diósgyőr win 10%.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Ferencváros 64% and Diósgyőr 79%, versus a league BTTS level of 62%, providing a strong statistical signal for both sides to score at least once. Diósgyőr has recorded zero clean sheets this season (0% clean sheets) and concedes an average of 2.14 goals per match, with xG against of 1.79, indicating significant defensive exposure. Ferencváros scores 1.29 and concedes 1.36 per match, with 52 goals for and 28 against on the season; its xG is 1.28 versus xG against 1.37. Both teams have similar average shots on target 3.57 vs 3.5 and identical conversion rate 11%. In the last 5 matches Ferencváros scored 8 goals (1.6 avg) and Diósgyőr 3 goals (0.6 avg), while the visitors conceded 11 goals in those five games (2.2 avg); over the season Diósgyőr records 64% of matches combining over 2.5 goals and BTTS and 71% of matches over 2.5 goals. Considering the high seasonal BTTS for both teams, the visitors’ zero clean sheet percentage and the high xG against (1.79), I recommend BTTS = 'Yes' with a probability of 76%, and 'No' at 24%.

Both teams have a very high rate of matches over 1.5 goals: Ferencváros 86% and Diósgyőr 93%, strongly indicating at least two goals. xG analysis: Ferencváros xG_for 1.28 vs Diósgyőr xG_against 1.79 yields an average 1.54 xG for the home side; Diósgyőr xG_for 1.22 vs Ferencváros xG_against 1.37 yields 1.29 xG for the away side, total expected goals = 2.83. Additionally, Diósgyőr concedes on average 2.14 goals per match and has 0% clean sheets away, while BTTS is 64% for the home team and 79% for the away team, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Seasonal Over2.5 rates are 50% (Ferencváros) and 71% (Diósgyőr) and the league averages 2.96 goals per match, therefore I assess Over2.5 at ~62% and Over3.5 at ~42%. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I rate 90%) — expected 1.54 and 1.29 goals suggest that at least two goals are highly likely.

Ferencváros is in markedly better form — in the last 5 matches they have a 60% win rate (form: WWLDW), while Diósgyőr have failed to win any of their last five (0%, form: LDLLL). The home side have led at the break in 60% of their last 5 games and average 0.8 goals by half-time, whereas the visitors average only 0.4 first-half goals, giving Ferencváros an advantage already at the break. Over the season Diósgyőr concedes an average of 2.14 goals per match while Ferencváros score 1.29 per match, further indicating the visitors’ weaker defence. After the break the visitors concede on average 1.21 goals, while the hosts add an average of 0.71 goals in the second half; the home team also have 71% clean halves at the break across the season, so the most likely scenario is Ferencváros leading at half-time and winning full-time (1/1).