Fernando de la Mora vs Atlético Tembetary: match statistics

Atlético Tembetary appears to be the favorite — they have 8 goals this season versus just 1 for Fernando de la Mora, which strongly favors the visitors. The visitors average 2.0 goals on the road with 11.5 shots per match and 4.0 on target, while the hosts have 0.0 average goals in home matches despite higher possession (56% vs 49%) and an average of 14.5 shots. Fernando de la Mora have yet to score at home (100% of home matches without a goal) and carry a negative home goal difference (-3), whereas Atlético have a positive away goal difference (+1) and 0% of away matches without scoring. In terms of quality of chances the hosts post 1.78 xG per game versus 1.47 xG for the visitors, indicating Fernando de la Mora create opportunities but their conversion is dramatically low (0 goals from 1.78 xG), while the visitors convert better (17% shooting accuracy on the road). Considering the visitors’ 1.8 average points in their last 5 matches versus the hosts’ 0.6, and the hosts’ 4 defeats in their last 5 games, I tip an away win (65%), draw 20%, home win 15%.

I back BTTS (Yes) as the more likely outcome – Atlético Tembetary has a season BTTS rate of 100% and 100% of matches over 2.5 goals while keeping 0% clean sheets. Fernando de la Mora has a season BTTS of 50% and 50% clean sheets, but in their last 5 matches their BTTS is 0%, they score on average 0.2 goals and concede 1.6, which weakens their offensive form. xG also supports a both-teams-to-score scenario: home xG_for is 1.13 versus away xG_against 1.62, and Atlético’s xG_for is 1.47 versus home xG_against 1.04, so both sides generate approximately 1–1.6 xG. The visitors average 11.5 shots and 4.0 on target compared to the hosts’ 8.0 and 3.5, and the league averages 2.36 goals per match; the visitors’ lack of clean sheets and their 100% over 2.5 is a strong signal for BTTS. In light of the above numbers (particularly the visitors’ 100% BTTS and 0% clean sheets) I assess BTTS probability at 80% vs 20% and recommend the "yes" bet.

The forecast is based on xG: the home side has xG 1.13 while the away defensive xG is 1.62, yielding about 1.38 expected goals for Fernando de la Mora; the visitors have xG 1.47 while the home defensive xG is 1.04, yielding about 1.25 xG for Atlético Tembetary, totaling 2.63 expected goals. Seasonal stats favor the Over: Atlético Tembetary have 100% of matches Over 2.5 goals and 100% BTTS, while Fernando de la Mora have 50% Over 2.5, which theoretically gives a 75% chance of Over 2.5 before form adjustment. The last 5 matches confirm the visitors’ superiority — Atlético scored 8 goals in their last 5, the hosts scored only 1 and conceded 8 in that period; the hosts’ form is 4 losses and 1 win, while the visitors have 3 wins and 2 losses. As a result I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at 85%, Over 2.5 at 70% (Under 30%) and Over 3.5 at 30% (Under 70%), because the projected 2.63 goals and the visitors’ 100% Over 2.5 represent the strongest signal. The best line to play is Over 2.5, as the most numerically justified option with the highest edge at moderate risk.

Fernando de la Mora is very strong at home — they have a 100% win rate at their stadium this season, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, yielding an average of 3.0 goals in home fixtures. Atlético Tembetary produces higher xG and more shots (xG 1.47 vs. the hosts’ 1.13, 11.5 vs. 8.0 shots), but converts less efficiently (17% vs. 25%), so the visitors create chances while the home side is more clinical. At half-time both teams average 1.5 goals each, and a draw at the break occurs frequently (50% HT rate for both); in the last five matches the hosts were tied at half-time in 60% of fixtures, which increases the likelihood of a draw HT. Considering the hosts’ finishing efficiency (25% conversion) and their superior points return at home (an average of 3.0 points per game versus 1.5 for the visitors), I expect the match to be level at half-time and then Fernando de la Mora to turn the result in their favor, hence X/1 is the most likely scenario. Additionally, the hosts score most often late in matches (2 goals in minutes 76–90), while the visitors score more frequently in 46–60 (2 goals), supporting a turnaround after the break.