Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown: match statistics
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ferro Carril Oeste played Almirante Brown in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 28 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Ferro Carril Oeste: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Almirante Brown: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ferro Carril Oeste scores 0.78 and concedes 0.78 goals per match. Almirante Brown scores 0.67 and concedes 0.89. League average: 1.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ferro Carril Oeste 33%, Almirante Brown 33%. Over 2.5: Ferro Carril Oeste 11%, Almirante Brown 33%. League level: BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Ferro Carril Oeste has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.17. Ferro Carril Oeste: 11.7 shots per match, Almirante Brown: 9.3.
Match halves
Ferro Carril Oeste: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.67. Almirante Brown: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Ferro Carril Oeste: 76-90+ (3 goals). Almirante Brown: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.79 goals per match, BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I expect a draw (X) and a low-scoring match. Ferro averages xG 1.73 at home with 15 shots and 3 on target, and 64% possession, yet scores only 0.33 goals per match and fails to score in 67% of home games. Almirante Brown on the road averages 8.2 shots with 2.4 on target, has a 7% finishing rate and keeps clean sheets in 60% of away matches, conceding 0.8 goals on average. In the last five matches Ferro has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 pts/match), while Almirante has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 pts/match), giving a slight form edge to the home side that does not translate into goals at home (0% home wins, home goal difference -3). Therefore I assign a 45% probability of a draw, 30% for a home win and 25% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams score very few goals: Ferro 0.75 and Almirante 0.60 goals per match this season, and in the last 5 matches both averaged only 0.4 goals per match. Season BTTS rates are 25% for Ferro and 40% for Almirante (average ~33%), however the last 5 matches show a drop to 0% and 20% (average 10%), indicating a lower probability of Goal/Goal. Additionally Almirante keeps a clean sheet in 60% of matches, and the clean sheet rate in the league is very high (83%), which favors No Goal outcomes. Although Ferro has higher xG (1.42 vs 0.97) and more shots (10.75 vs 8.2), poor conversion 7% and low SOT (3.0 vs 2.4) suggest few goals, therefore I predict No BTTS (72% vs 28%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals as the average of the home attack xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: the home side have attacking xG 1.42 and xG conceded 1.08, so expected for Ferro = (1.42+1.08)/2 = 1.25; Almirante have attacking xG 0.97 and xG conceded by the hosts 1.17, so expected for the away side = (0.97+1.17)/2 = 1.07, total 2.32. With total λ=2.32 the Poisson distribution yields probability Over 1.5 ≈67% (Under 1.5 ≈33%), Over 2.5 ≈41% (Under 2.5 ≈59%) and Over 3.5 ≈20% (Under 3.5 ≈80%). Additionally, the hosts average 3.0 shots on target versus 2.4 for the visitors, with a 7% conversion rate for both teams, but season stats show low BTTS: 25% for the hosts and 40% for the away side, and 60% clean sheets for the visitors, while seasonal Over2.5 is only 25% (home) and 40% (away) with league average Over2.5 = 28%. Considering the combined xG of 2.32 and the relatively high probability of >1.5 (67%) alongside much lower chances for Over 2.5 (41%) and 3.5 (20%), the strongest play is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 75% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 75.0), while the away side were level in 60% (drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 60.0), with half-time average goals of 0.25 for Ferro and 0.4 for Almirante. Over the full match the home team are favorites: their xG is 1.42 versus 0.97 for the visitors, they average 10.75 shots to 8.2 and 3.0 on target to 2.4, and their home win rate is 50% compared to 20% for Almirante. The hosts perform better after the break — they average 1.75 points in second halves versus 1.0 for the away team and win 50% of second halves versus 20% for Almirante — hence a Half-Time draw/Full-Time home win scenario is logical. The counterargument is that the visitors led at the break in 40% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 40.0) and had 100% clean sheets at half-time (seasonCSPercentageHT_away = 100.0), so a 2/1 turnaround (Half-Time away lead/Full-Time home win) remains a significant alternative. Based on this I indicate X/1 as the primary pick (36%), with X/X (18%) and 2/1 (18%) as the main alternatives; 1/1 is unlikely (4%) because the hosts did not lead at half-time this season (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 0.0).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 24% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.8 pts / match - Almirante Brown
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
0.78 goals / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.67 goals / match - Almirante Brown
Ferro Carril Oeste is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.78 goals / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.89 goals / match - Almirante Brown
Ferro Carril Oeste scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Almirante Brown keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 matches).
Almirante Brown scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while Ferro Carril Oeste keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ferro Carril Oeste
Over / Under - Almirante Brown
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Almirante Brown is 71% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.78 pts / match - Ferro Carril Oeste · 1.33 pts / match - Almirante Brown
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ferro Carril Oeste - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Almirante Brown - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ferro Carril Oeste
Almirante Brown
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Liga | Almirante Brown | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.56 | 1.79 | ▼ 1.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 36% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 11% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 42% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | • 56% | 57% | ▼ 44% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Ferro Carril Oeste 0:1 Almirante Brown. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown?
Ferro Carril Oeste score 0.78 goals per game on average and Almirante Brown 0.67. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Ferro Carril Oeste's matches and 33% of Almirante Brown's.
What form are Ferro Carril Oeste and Almirante Brown in?
Over the last 5 games Ferro Carril Oeste have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Almirante Brown 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.